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[Closed] SNG 1st from 6 chips

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dashe
Joined: 07.04.2009

Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. But this is ridiculous...
Stars Hyper Turbo 6max
Lost a coinflip and had 24chips left 80/40 Ante 8
Have 6 chips after ante

78s vs k9o and 2jo = 2pair
$32 chips 66 vs k4o = trips
50/100
$116 85s, both called then another potted flop with 47o the other folded = won
$368 k5o = pf
$608 89o vs j9 = board: J79AT
60/120
$1090 Q4s vs K4s($624) = 2pair
some shoving and folding hu
$1942 T8o vs Q7s = 2pair

Could not believe it. How would you calculate probability of this happening ?


5 replies
Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

Wow - I've had a few miracle comebacks to (~100 chips or like 1.5 BB's), but nothing like that... Congrats!!! That's got to be a good boost to your confidence level.


This happened to me once. Don't remember how many chips were left exactly but they were less than 1BB. I know it's an amazing feeling!! Congratz


Its insanely cool when this happens, you just win every hand :)


My fren had more amazing comeback last month...
$2.50 buy in, 90players , 15min blinds

AA vs KK = KK guy won with a set

My Fren chips left 65, with over 75 players remaining, he got lucky with blind 30/60...

Then, he finished 8th of 90 players. That more lucky.
Busted hand all in preflop TT vs 99 = 99 guy hit a set on flop.

*the next day he played the same tour again n finished 9th.


biogas
Joined: 22.07.2010

Originally posted by dashe

78s vs k9o and 2jo = 2pair
$32 chips 66 vs k4o = trips
50/100
$116 85s, both called then another potted flop with 47o the other folded = won
$368 k5o = pf
$608 89o vs j9 = board: J79AT
60/120
$1090 Q4s vs K4s($624) = 2pair
some shoving and folding hu
$1942 T8o vs Q7s = 2pair

Could not believe it. How would you calculate probability of this happening ?

78s vs k9o and 2jo 36%
66 vs k4o 70%
85s, vs 47o 64%
89o vs j9 29%
Q4s vs K4s 28%
T8o vs Q7s 40%

So multiply them up: 0.36*0.7*0.64*0.29*0.28*0.4=0.5% probability for this to happen.