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nl10 fr set on the flop

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tofu22
Joined: 18.10.2008

Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $11.43
UTG+1: $10.00
Hero (MP): $10.00
MP+1: $19.27
CO: $9.40
BTN: $12.30
SB: $13.13
BB: $2.33

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8♠ 8♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, MP+1 calls $0.35, fold, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($1.15, 3 players) 4♥ Q♠ 8♣
SB checks, Hero bets $0.86, MP+1 calls $0.86, fold

Turn: ($2.87, 2 players) 5♥
Hero bets $2.30, MP+1 raises to $18.06, Hero calls $6.49

River: ($20.45, 2 players) 5♠

villain 16/13/11 af/ PF 3bet 2 (514) he was also a PS.com player

when he raised me on the turn i was thinking he would only do this with 2x or a set, a straight i think is unlikely. i don't really see him calling PF + F wiht too many Q8 or Q4 or even 84, so 2x doesn't really fit. with overs he would raise PF ofc, so that leaves 44 QQ.

but can i ever fold here?

(the thing that does make me happy about this hand, that i really thought all that before i called)


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veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello tofu22,

Well, already the first case here is that we just need ~32% equity. If we even include only 44/QQ into his range then we already getting the equity:

Board: 4♥Q♠8♣ 5♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { 8h8s }
UTG+1  50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { QQ, 44 }

So I doubt that we can get away here. Just unlucky if he has the hand. :( Also of course if even has 67 then also worth taking note that he cold calls 67.

Best Regards.


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