NL100 ATo

Imo you should be more careful with marginal hands like ATo, especially OOP.
ATo isn't performing too well, even vs a somewhat wide callingrange; this is how it does vs a 12% range:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    57.31%  52.99%   4.32% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
MP3    42.69%  38.38%   4.32% { ATo }

So it's quite fine to 3bet pre because foldequity + potequity make it +EV, however on a board like this even a 12% range crushes us:

Board: K♥9♠5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    79.35%  74.92%   4.42% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
MP3    20.65%  16.23%   4.42% { ATo }

If you experiment with smth like 10% or 8%, you'll see that this is a c/f.

Btw even if he floats a lot the J doesn't help that much:

Board: K♥9♠5♣ J♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    84.88%  80.67%   4.21% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
MP3    15.12%  10.92%   4.21% { ATo }

Ofc he folds some hands on the way, but smth like {KK+, JJ, 99, AKs, ATs, KTs+, QTs, AKo, KJo+} is definitely going to SD, so we have ~50% foldequity - but it's spread over 3 streets!
So that's smth like 20%-25% on each street which is not sufficient to make it a +EV barrel.
=> c/f flop.

This is just a board I very rarerly c/folds. You are right that his range has me crushed, but unless he has a king (which there shouldn't be too many of in the first place) I think I can be able to fold out his holdings on future streets.

But yeah, this turncards is probably not the best barrelcard as you say, so a c/f is probably best here.

But on a blank I think I could get him to fold a decent amount of his range. Lets say he calls flop with KTs+, KJo-KQo, AQ, AJ, AT, A9s, 88-JJ (104 combos in total).

Turn is a total blank (lets just say a 2). If we assume that he folds anthing except TP+, he will have a total of 42 handcombos left (KJ-KQ,KTs-KQs,99) that he calls with. Even if we give him another hands that he might peel another street the bet should be +EV I believe.

So while to flop cbet in itself might not be +EV I think that a potential 2nd barrel could be very profitable on the right cards.

Thoughts?

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Ofc he folds some hands on the way, but smth like {KK+, JJ, 99, AKs, ATs,
=> c/f flop.

almost all that range can 4b pre though.

Against his floprange we have less than 20% equity on all cards except a T and an A - so I don't think we have too much FEQ on any given card.
As you say he has tons of TP combinations in his range.

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Ofc he folds some hands on the way, but smth like {KK+, JJ, 99, AKs, ATs,
=> c/f flop.

almost all that range can 4b pre though.

It could, but as a matter of fact people don't 4bet too much (could be site dependant though).

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Ofc he folds some hands on the way, but smth like {KK+, JJ, 99, AKs, ATs,
=> c/f flop.

almost all that range can 4b pre though.

It could, but as a matter of fact people don't 4bet too much (could be site dependant though).

Which site do you play on?

Yeah I am also curious on what site you are playing?

Because I really really rarly see people trap with AA-KK pre, and AK for that matter is even more rare.

All in all I have a hard time agreeing with you concerning the flop- and turncbet here.

Don't you think the range I assigned could be somewhat accurate? If so it's definately profitable.

I play on Ladbrokes (Microgaming).

@axel
If you have good reason to make your assumptions you should definitely trust them.
Under your assumptions it would be profitable.