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An observation on variance

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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

I was told -- perhaps in one of the articles on PokerStrategy -- that 5CD is less subject to variance than other forms of poker. Perhaps so.

I started playing 5CD in August last year, before EvGalois posted his now famous articles on the game. The first downswing in this graph ended when I read those articles. Cool, I thought -- I have knowledges!

Not so fast.

I recently experienced a downswing of roughly the same magnitude.

This prompted to me to re-examine the first one.
I found that in each I had:
4 sets that lost to higher sets.
at least one pat straight or flush that got beat on the draw
Several two-pair hands that were beaten by people drawing 3 and hitting trips or better 2pr. The big difference in the first one is that I was betting too many -- in other words > 0 -- garbage hands.
So perhaps the initial "downswing" was not entirely due to abysmal play.

The thing that stands out in the graph is the number of v-shaped notches, and the similarity in their sizes. I'm wondering if they represent days when I should not have been playing at all -- tired, bored etc -- followed by normal days.

As far as my overall play goes, I don't think I'm ready to move up a limit.
I have only recently started attacking the blinds harder, and there is still work to do on flush and OESD play as well as 3Betting and how to play against a 3Bet.


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7 replies
Huricano
Joined: 29.08.2010

~13.5k hands
~35$ = ~175 BB

175/13500 * 100 = ~1.3

From my perspective It's about ~1.3 BB/100
Oh c'mon you can be better!


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Huricano
Joined: 29.08.2010

Ok, I stole some old Russians graphs from they forum, don't tell'em :)

lolDRAMAturg (now play better):

Spoiler

Barseqqq:
/
/

Delucia777:

Spoiler



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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Huricano
175/13500 * 100 = ~1.3
From my perspective It's about ~1.3 BB/100
Oh c'mon you can be better!

Thanks for the encouragement! :)

In fact, if you look at the graph, from just over 10000 hands on, my winrate picks up quite a bit. That is about the time of the thread about raising flush draws.

That, plus more aggressive blind stealing has made a big difference.
From that point to the end -- including the downswing -- the win rate is 3.39 BB/100

Before I even think about the next limit, though, I'll play another 10K hands at this one.


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

When I was moving up, I took 20BB shots at the next limit once I had 120BB. I got to FL $3/$6 in about 10 weeks starting from $25 on 0.1/0.2. Just go for it.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Again, thanks for the encouragement.
However, yesterday, after posting my lovely geroff, I dropped nearly $10 in 500 hands.
Again, I'm hitting sets and losing to guys hitting flushes, or having pat hands whacked by villains hitting draws.

I had lots o' sleep too, so that's not it.
Strangely, a couple of people I see a lot had also dropped large piles of $.
Maybe it's one of those spatial phenomenon things -- you know, where the earth passes through a region of space where good looking cards are really bad.

Or maybe it's just variance <sigh>


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Just as example of the way my week has gone:
Overall an up session, but admittedly I cut it short when I was up 10BB

Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players

UTG: $4.94 (Hero)
UTG+1: $3.58
CO: $3.95
Button: $4.43
SB: $1.41
BB: $5.95

Dealing Hands: ($0.15) 4♣ T♥ 4♦ 6♣ 4♠ (6 players)
Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds

First Draw: ($0.55) (2 players)
Hero discards 1, Button discards 1,
4♣ 4♦ 6♣ 4♠ || 6♦
Hero bets $0.20, Button raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $0.60, Button raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.20

Hero mucked
Button showed 7♥ 8♥ 5♥ 6♥ 9♥, a straight flush, Five to Nine
Button won $2.05
(Rake: $0.10)


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Huricano
Joined: 29.08.2010

Sometimes even 5 card draw can be brutall:

Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit 5 Card Draw - 2 players - View hand 1621147
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB)
Bessenok raises, Maestro Shao 3-bets, Bessenok caps!, Maestro Shao calls

First Draw: (8 SB) (2 players)
Maestro Shao draws 3, Bessenok draws 1
Maestro Shao checks, Bessenok bets, Maestro Shao raises, Bessenok 3-bets, Maestro Shao calls

Final Pot: 10 BB
Bessenok shows Q :spade: Q :heart: Q :club: 7 :spade: 3 :heart: (three of a kind, Queens)
Maestro Shao shows K :club: K :diamond: K :heart: 9 :club: 2 :club: (three of a kind, Kings)
Maestro Shao wins 9.975 BB
(Rake: $0.50)

10 hands later...

Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit 5 Card Draw - 2 players - View hand 1621149
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB)
Bessenok raises, Maestro Shao 3-bets, Bessenok caps!, Maestro Shao calls

First Draw: (8 SB) (2 players)
Maestro Shao draws 3, Bessenok draws 1
Maestro Shao checks, Bessenok bets, Maestro Shao raises, Bessenok 3-bets, Maestro Shao calls

Final Pot: 10 BB
Bessenok shows A :heart: K :diamond: K :club: K :heart: 3 :diamond: (three of a kind, Kings)
Maestro Shao shows A :diamond: A :spade: A :club: K :spade: 7 :spade: (three of a kind, Aces)
Maestro Shao wins 9.975 BB
(Rake: $0.50)


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