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You can NOT win if you fold

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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Callum and I have decided to start a blog for PokerStrategy.com.

We are both from the UK but currently working in Gib for PS.com, we both work in the Market Analysis department and you may have seen us (more Callum than I) posting in the Choose a Poker Room for you thread.

We try to fit a full time job around a quite busy poker schedule, we both play 6max midstakes online however I am trying to learn the 3max games on Ongame a little bit at the moment too.


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221 replies
UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009

1st!

The very best to both of you in what I am sure is going to be an epic blog full of excellent content and commentary :)

Run well!

Gary


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

What will we be posting in the thread?

  • Every Wednesday we will post a video in the Blog. The video will be like any other PokerStrategy Video (although ofc better :f_biggrin: ) however you will be able to access it in the Blog, in other words it's free!

  • As well as Video content, we will both we posting strategy articles where we will encourage players to think and hopefully play outside of the box. Callum and I are most definitely very LAGGY players. We both play 32/29/12ish so hopefully we can keep you entertained
  • I graduated from university with a journalism degree and one of the biggest things I regret is not continuing to write. I used to write a lot for a UK poker magazine and I will switch back on the pen in this blog.
  • You can post absolutely any questions in the Blog about Poker. Previously I have done wells talking about hu and 6max poker and I (and I assume Callum) will be happy to continue them into here and give my thoughts on anything to do with strategy or poker in general
  • Callum and I are both very passionate about Poker Ecology. Although we won't be able to reach the standards of Dominiks Blog we will speak openly about our thoughts on the current state and future of the industry
  • We both live in Gibraltar and will post trip reports of any trips that we do. We are both going to go to WPT Marbella so hopefully can bring back lots of money from there
  • I'm a huge football fan and Callum is a games geek. It's funny how I don't say that I am a football geek and he is a games fan :f_biggrin: we will both randomly post about any thoughts of the football world and errrrr how many goblins Callum killed last night..

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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Here is the first video that we released for PokerStrategy, last Wednesday.

The next Video will be released on Wednesday but feel free to comment/watch this video if you haven't watched already.

BB: $637
Hero (SB): $602

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♦ J♦
Hero raises to $6.00, BB calls $4.00

Flop: ($12) K♥ J♣ 5♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.00, BB calls $8.00

Turn: ($28) 5♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22.00, BB calls $22.00

River: ($72) 2♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45.00, BB raises to $119, Hero ($521) ?

Some analysis from Callums house mate Ben.

Originally posted by Benps
Callum and I changed the numbers regarding the ev calc w/ a5hh.
Question was: better calling or jamming?

Ev(bet/call)
Equity = 1/7 ~ 85% (only boats possible is j5cc. and he raises 6 other combos of 5x).
Pot = 72+119*2 = 310
Call = 119-45 = 74
ev(call) = 310*85% - 74 ~ 190

Ev(bet/jam)
Details:
Equity when called = 50%
{C/r range} = 7 combos.
Let's say he calls only 2 of those. We loose to 1 combo of j5cc and let's say he calls 1 combo of a weaker 5x.
Fold equity = 5/7 ~ 70%
pot before jam = 72+45+119 = 236
Allin pot = preflop stack sizes*2 ~ 1200 (would include the rake).
Our shove = 602-36-45 = 521

ev(shove) = 70%*236 + 30% * [ 1200*50% - 521 ]
= 165.2 + 23.7 ~ $190

We may weight # of combos with frequencies - like he calls boats 100% but weaker 5x only x%, ...)

All of this *** to say that jamming and calling are quite close.
Flow, history, future ev, image and stuff are better to take into account in such a case; like pleno said about "villain feeling being run over etc".


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pokerprons
Joined: 30.09.2009

Sounds like another epic thread in the making.

[x] subscribed!


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Solidius
Joined: 28.12.2010

Cool !

Subscribed. ^^


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Weekend Cliffs

Saturday

  • Went for meal with Callum at Pizza Express. Cheese and tomato without cheese ftw

  • Played 3-5 handed in casino with a 1knl reg who eventually refused to keep playing.

    One interesting hand of note:

    Callum raises UTG, reg calls button, I call BB with 3d4d. Flop is Ah 5d Qh, I bet £11/£18. Callum folds, reg calls.

    I check the 2c turn which gave me the nuts and the reg checks his cards and checks back.

    River is 8d, I check, reg bets one £25 chip, I raise to £156, he folds.

  • Degen a little bit at casino.

Sunday

  • Gib was around 25 degrees and probably nicest weather in Europe. We went for lunch with Ingrid. Proper Sunday roast dinner which was really good but walking back to my house for grindaments killed all of us
  • Grinded every tourny on Stars from $11-$215, managed a top 100 finish in the Warm Up to have a profitable Sunday which is 2 out of 2 for this year, something I wish I could say the same for last year :f_biggrin:
  • Callum ran terrible at cash losing AKvAQ xxxxQ and a few other ridiculous hands, was like 10buyins down, but grinded it all back to end in the black
  • Ingrid made us the most amazing grinding food. First she baked us a chocolate cake, I cleaned the bowl obv :f_biggrin: and then she made us pancakes. nomnomnom, great day.


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fruktpuff
Joined: 24.09.2010

I also want ingicake :(


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Hi everyone!
First post in what will hopefully be a awesome blog!

Just thought I would share a big hand I played the other day, Villain is a bad LAGfish who we have some crazy history with. As mentioned above by Patrick hes the guy where we lost AK vs AQ when we 5bet pre and c/c a 85xr flop for like 250bb’s or something silly.

The only thing stopping me from raging was Ingrids amazing cake :)

Then we get his hand

BB: £284.35 (142.2 bb)
UTG: £724 (362bb)
MP: £334.50 (167.3 bb)
CO: £200 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): £905 (452.5 bb)
SB: £246.01 (123 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A♥ 9♥
UTG raises to £6, 2 folds, Hero raises to £18, 2 folds, UTG raises to £42, Hero calls £24,

Flop: (£87)9♠ 4♥ 3♦ (2 players)
UTG bets £48, Hero calls £48

Turn: (£183) 7♥ (2 players)
UTG bets £112, Hero calls £112

River: (£407) 2♥ (2 players)

UTG bets AI (£522), Hero calls £522

Results: £1451 pot

Final Board: 9♠ 4♥ 3♦ 7♥ 2♥

Hero showed A♥ 9♥ and won £727

MP showed J♠J♦ and lost £724


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booooyakacha, runna runna FTW ;)

hope he tilted some later on


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Warm welcome in our blogs section crazy boys! :f_love:


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B.O.O.K.M.A.R.K.E.D.


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ThatGuyMatt
Joined: 03.12.2010

Originally posted by fruktpuff
I also want ingicake :(

+1 morrison


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TimPS
Joined: 08.04.2010

lol @ at visual presentation of the A :heart:9 :heart: hand, made me lol quite hard

Subscribed and keep them updates coming!


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Solidius
Joined: 28.12.2010

Hahahaha !

A-W-E-S-O-M-E post !

Keep them coming.


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Gerovit
Joined: 16.01.2011

Cool HH converter you have there...
Man i laughed out loud literally


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Following for sure.


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Jan217
Joined: 02.01.2009

Epic first post, will definately be following!


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

The second part of Callum and I's video comes out today. Will post the video ITT too.

We decided to take a different approach to the video instead of just staring at a hand history for 10 minutes we did a "presentation" style format.

Hope you like!


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but we like coaches staring at a hand history for 10 mins, why do you have to ruin all the fun? :coolface:


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