AA fold

Tough situation for a pot bet. Do you have any stats?

here's my musing:

Worst case scenario says K8 for a made full house or slowplayed kings, the call on the flop makes it possible but it seems odd that the nuts would bet the pot. Depending on his stats I'd say that a flush is fairly likely. In that case you have one street to draw one of the remaining diamonds for a higher flush, (one in your hand, three on the board, and presumably two in his hand leaves seven) plus you have the two aces for the nut fullhouse (only beaten by pocket kings which is again unlikely.)) you're about 18% against the strongest of his range (again assuming kings or K8/K3 aren't in play very often.) considering the bet and pot size, you really don't have the express or implied odds to call.

Shoving would need to make a fold very frequently in this situation in order for a semi-bluff to be profitable. Considering he's betting 2/3rds of your remaining stack on the turn, he'd need to call about 60 cents more for a pot of 3.40 (I'm rounding.) 5.666:1 odds make it really unlikely he'd fold.

Away from the table I'd say it's a fold unless he's a really loose guy who has balls of steel, a high aggression factor, and a love for pocket pairs.

If I made any mistakes let me know ♦

Goodluck with your aces!

G.

I don't like cBetting this big to represent the King, it doesn't yield any value if you want to overplay your Aces with a nutredraw that still has some value versus his range

I either bet smaller to let those small PPs in or I check/call Flop and then call it down. If FLop goes check/check, I bet Turn+River

As played, I prefer to bet again because I still think PPs with 1 ♦ will call

Best regards,
Gerv