45 man - QQ on bubble

I'm a beginner, but I'm going to risk sounding stupid and give my two cents:

The big stack is likely to be stealing and he's going to call you light, being such an overwhelming chip leader. Even if he wasn't, you're still probably a favorite. Equilab says you're a favorite even against the top 5% of his range. And he could call you with any 2. If you wait, you're lucky if you min cash. If you double up, you've at least got a shot at something more. And if the big stack folds (unlikely), you're picking up a lot of dead money.

Again, I'm a beginner, but I've been trying to work a lot on my ICM play, so I'm really curious to hear what more advanced players have to say. I think I'm shoving there 100% of the time, since I'm almost guaranteed to be ahead. The other short stack is so close to me that he only needs to win the blinds once to get ahead, and then I'm screwed.

But I'd love to hear the opinions of some more advanced players. Is my reasoning faulty?

Yes he was the big chip leader and has been opening quite a bit so i obviously crush his range. The problem is with any overcard to my QQ i am not a massive favourite. I know that when i shove i have 0 fold equity and it's the bubble. I'm still a ICM noob so dunno if i made a horrible play or not.

No fold equity for sure. I guess I'd be shoving there, knowing I'm probably getting called by worse. QQ against KJo is over 70% favorite according to Equilabs, and he could well call you with much worse.

I punched this situation into ICM trainer, and if I'm not mistaken the CL is pushing about 44% there, and you need to be in your top 16% (I'm very new to the software so I could be way off). If that's true, QQ should be a clear shove - in fact, you should be about 74% against his range. I know what you mean about the bubble, but I would think that folding there is still less profitable than shoving, because your M is so low.

Another thing to take into consideration is when the levels are changing. Your M is 3 right there. Once the levels change, I'm guessing it drops to below 2, right? And what are your chances of surviving or catching a hand within the next few minutes?

Again, I might very well be way off. I'm trying to learn, so I love to try my hand at these kinds of problems. And if I'm wrong, I'd love to hear why. I know I couldn't see myself playing that hand any differently.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

CO should openshove ATC. You can't fold QQ here, but of course, you have 0 FE against CO. it's a pretty easy push.
I don't know if CO know he can openshove ATC, but he will, without a doubt, openraise a lot.

Originally posted by Svarthjalmar
I punched this situation into ICM trainer, and if I'm not mistaken the CL is pushing about 44% there, and you need to be in your top 16% (I'm very new to the software so I could be way off). I

I think ICM trainer works only for SnG 6-players and 9-players. The payout of a 45-man on PokerStars is : 0.31,0.215,0.165,0.125,0.09,0.06,0.035. In a 9-players, it's 0.50,0.30,0.20.

This is an insta-shove. While it's true we are on the bubble, the hand we hold should be well within our shoving range. Chip leader will be stealing wide, maybe not super wide, but still wide enough for us to be winning a lot of chips and equity when we shove. Everything else is down to the dealer. NH.

AJ+,22+ get it in

Originally posted by TheRebuz
AJ+,22+ get it in

Pretty sure 22 or any low pair is a easy fold here. Don't want to be flipping to stay in the tournament on the bubble while other stacks are shorter.

This is an absolute must shove, you simply cannot fold QQ in this spot. Personally I am shoving A9s+, KQ+, 88+
nh wp.
One thing, dont post results, you get more impartial evaluations.