On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
UTG+2: $70.12 (140.2 bb)
MP1: $49.50 (99 bb)
MP2: $62.08 (124.2 bb)
MP3: $58.14 (116.3 bb)
CO: $56.26 (112.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)
SB: $85.40 (170.8 bb)
BB: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
UTG+1: $21.75 (43.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8
J
UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50
Flop: ($4.75) J
3
5 (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds
Turn: ($11.75) T (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $6, MP2 raises to $16, Hero calls $10
River: ($43.75) 4
(2 players)
MP2 bets $30, Hero folds
Villain is 40/20/3.7 over 257 hands. AF=2.1 CbetFlop 70. CbetTurn 30. FoldToCbetFlop 57. FoldToCbetTurn 0.
On the turn I think I am ahead plus still have huge surprise outs if he somehow has and overpair and is playing pot control. If he calls me on the turn I'm sure he calls me on the river too, so planning to bet big if flush comes, check behind if not. Was a little worried that he cbet flop into 3 people.
He raises.
Should I always fold to his raise? I called because if the flush comes I think my implied odds are pretty big. Should I always be worried here about bigger FD? Should I consider the fact that he may have a set and if I make the flush on the river may lose to FH? This is quite a frequent spot, in position, pair and disguised draw and check-raised on the turn.
As played, what do you think about these 2 river scenarios:
J comes and he shoves.
8 comes and he shoves
