$7.50 (Turbo) Step 1 SNG AK

Originally posted by HollyMichelle
Is this shove OK? Villain had been very aggressive

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $150(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,720)
BB ($1,300)
UTG ($5,365) 43/31 over 36 hands
CO ($2,015)
BTN ($2,100)

Dealt to Hero A♠ K♥

UTG raises to $2,250, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2,720 (AI), fold, UTG calls $470

FLOP ($5,590) 8♥ K♣ 9♣

TURN ($5,590) 8♥ K♣ 9♣ T♥

RIVER ($5,590) 8♥ K♣ 9♣ T♥ A♣

Spoiler

Hero shows A♠ K♥
(Pre 44%, Flop 1.9%, Turn 0.0%)

UTG shows 8♦ 8♠
(Pre 56%, Flop 98.1%, Turn 100.0%)

UTG wins $5,590

How many get paid, top 2?

I'd fold, you are way too risk averse vs. the big stack with that stack setup and payout structure, I'd only ship QQ+.

AK really isn't doing too well against his range, you have at best 60/40 vs. random two cards, and all you're doing well against is weaker Ax.

Top 2 progress to next stage, 3rd gets shot at Step 1 again and 4th takes a loss of $6

Hi everyone!

I just double checked the spot in wiz and it doesn't like it. IMO, his sizing(basically all in) indicates strong, but not monster hand. That means some mid pairs, AT-AK type of hands. Even when I exclude QQ-AA, AK from his range, it's still bad. Folding seems better. I really doubt he raises here with 31% of hands, so once again his range narrowed towards low-mid pairs, strongish Ax, maybe some strong broadway.