Mid pair on dry A high board in blind battle

This guy seems to be Loose Aggressive , good stats. so he must be thinking just a little.

But i dont really like your turn check/call.. you bet the flop with your second pair. why not bet again ? as played I don't see calling the river as a good thing. after the K and the J .. in the BB you look at the widest range of all positions.

So next time , bet turn again. the cont bet check turn is almost always = weak hand/ No pair type of hand. and a Loose Aggressive player will take advantage of that. for all we know he could be betting the turn with a 3 he called with on the flop.

recap: Don't call down when you check turn
Next time bet the Turn.

neat spot.

Our decisions on the turn and river have a lot to do with how light our opponent will peel and whether he'll raise with his draws or with many hands which are better than ours. We do not have this info so its hard to justify lines that are exploitable.

Against an unknown i sort of like betting the turn and river. We beat many flopped pairs that want to call and those hands will check back if we check. Even though we'll sometimes valuetown ourselves against better hands I think barreling is going to win more money until we have a reason to deviate.

Checking against a reg seems reasonable but I think its only the better option when we can justify our river decision. At this point it seems like we can't do that. He likely bets all his made hands so we probably aren't missing value against his worse made hands. If he did just call with a draw he may decided to bluff now. After all, we have a lot of hands that just check/fold in this spot so checking can make it a little harder for him. However, its tough for us to play check/call on the river after our turn play given that our range is pretty face up as being draws or weak made hands.

Until we have enough information to decide whats right its going to be difficult to justify folding our pair. We have no info here about whether he bluff raises the flop with those straight draws, whether he peels the flop with weak SDvalue (that has largely improved by this river) or whether he's agro enough to barrel when its quite clear we regularly have a hand that has SD value. Another problem is that his weaker value hands probably check back. We're only beating a bluff and we have some reasons to think he doesn't have many bluffs.

I really think we need more info to decide.

It's really ok to just check/call the Turn because either he's got 7x Ax, Kx. So if he's got a pair then most of the times his pair is better than yours and in case he's got a float like T9 J9 etc, let him bluff. There are not many hands you can be valuebetting twice against. Q3 76 etc that against his entire range it's better to check/call. If he's got 46 45 etc, he'll probably barrel off twice. Especially against a loose guy who's certainly betting each worse pair for free showdown.

Lets say the king would have been a 5, i'd be rather inclined to valuebet against Kx but Kx arrived on the Turn. Lets say you have nothing, you would check/fold the Turn a good portion of the time and it's necessary to balance your check/folds by having a pair you are going to check call. Turnplay is fine but on the River it's kind of tough with no information. You're actually just beating his missed straightdraws and random floats like QT T9 89 etc. I would actually check/call against unknown. Also for the reason that this guy is probably 3betting a lot of his Ax hands Preflop and we can still split against T7 Q7.

Agreed, a 5 is much better since it also gives him many weak pairs. QT has the nut straight on the river though.