[Closed] What now? #2

Pff i keep on adding hands in pokerstove and im getting nowhere i think its either way a close decision.

I would call and reevaluate on the turn but this aint an option in the vote hehe. So i vote call and reevaluate the river

River? ♦

Originally posted by ciRith
River? ♦

haha bastard im pretty sure i read river ^^ u must have corrected it ♦

Can you post your equilator analyses? (Just give him 50 VPIP - 20 PFR or so.

Im new to equilator but do i have to put the first slider to 50 and the second one to 20?

Or do we have to put the first one at 50 and the second one at 10? Because with 20% PFR he is only going to raise 10% of his VPIP?

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation completed... 299,970 games processed in 0 seconds.

Board: Kc 9s 3h
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 55.817 % 51.740 % 8.156 % 40.105 % 22-44, A2s, K7s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J6s+, T7s+, 98s, A6o-A2o, K8o-K2o, QTo-Q6o, J7o+, T9o
Player 2: 44.183 % 40.105 % 8.156 % 51.740 % As2s

The one on the right side sets the VPIP. The left one subtracts the PFR.
Looks as you've done it correct.
Now you have to take a look which hands he would raise on the flop (just take out all hands that make no sense at all but let a few be for his bluff range).

http://www.PokerStrategy.com
Operation completed... 218,790 games processed in 0 seconds.

Board: Kc 9s 3h
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 65.285 % 65.251 % 0.067 % 34.682 % 22-44, K7s-K2s, Q9s-Q7s, Q3s, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, A3o, K8o-K2o, QTo-Q7o, J9o+, T8o+, 98o
Player 2: 34.715 % 34.682 % 0.067 % 65.251 % As2s

That would be something like this. But i dont really know how many bluf hands i can give him. I also gave him alot of gutshots ect wich he would raise. Our equity still is pretty bad now.

I just fold here, weak but I hate those spots.

34% would be enough for a call I guess but if he isn't that loose then it's better to fold here.

Using stats in this case doesn't make much sense to me as we have only 14 hands of him and they can greatly deviate from his actual play. Though his AF is pretty high for his 71 VPIP and 50 WTSD. And since this flop is suchh a good spot to bluff I would call and reevaluate on turn.
There're still pretty much cards which would be good for us on a turn (that we won't fold to his turn c-bet) so it's enough to have even ~30% equity

Originally posted by Macrobeus
Using stats in this case doesn't make much sense to me as we have only 14 hands of him and they can greatly deviate from his actual play. Though his AF is pretty high for his 71 VPIP and 50 WTSD. And since this flop is suchh a good spot to bluff I would call and reevaluate on turn.
There're still pretty much cards which would be good for us on a turn (that we won't fold to his turn c-bet) so it's enough to have even ~30% equity

This.

Originally posted by Yoghi
I just fold here, weak but I hate those spots.

Me too. If he is such a fish I would wait for a better spot than this to take his money ♦

Btw, I see Fold as an easiest and quite right decision, and in such situation we can mostly fold without too much thinking, but upon a deeper look we can try to find out more creative solution.

We get 7:1 one without a very good chance to be ahead anymore as the board is very dry.

Yep, it's indeed the dryness of the board that makes me tend to call. Good stop to bluff for him and not much cards I would be afraid of on turn.

So you want to calldown? Because just calling the flop to fold the turn if you think that he will bluff often enough is even worse than folding directly.

But I like your thinking and a calldown on good cards could be possible. Maybe folding the river if no scare card comes is possible as well because he will often give up on his bluffs.

Yes, that's the idea.