NL200 54s

Any reads on fish? Kx is probably big part of his range, so I would check/shove. You might loose some value if he has Ax and is passive though.

Hey,

I don't think he b/calls KQ otr so don't agree with c/s. I would just b/f here, something along the lines of $88 otr and expect a lot of heros. His river raising range is always value and is never turning KJ into a bluff.

Turn felt nice right?

Ak wannnnnnnnn time.

I am not following your reasoning here really. I would expect Kx to be the majority of his range here OTR given the action (my assumption would be that most pairs, worse than Kx folds OTT) so then it must be better to go for a really large (over)bet OTR to maximize value against all the kings that is in his range?

Turn felt nice indeed

Preflop

Calling 54s is optimistic. Despite getting odds and a weaker player (CO) in the pot, I don't think this is an automatic call. You are deep with the CO which helps you, but maybe too deep actually, as 30/7 doesnt seem to be super terrible, so I don't think you want to stack off for 200bb with a 5-hi flush or a trips-no-kicker. I wouldn't go as far as saying preflop is a mistake, but I would recommend folding such a trashy hand.

Flop

I think donking is a clear mistake. You absolutely need to allow UT to cbet this, he will be putting in money there very often with very weak hands. So if you have a set, you surely want to check. If you have a Kx you also want to check for sure. And with a draw you should therefor check as well. Whether to check raise or check call we will see when the action get's back. But donking, even though it works out ok with this hand, is not a play you should be going for here ever.

Turn

Now that CO apparently has a piece, and you have a nut hand, you should go for maximum value. I don't think you can force a call from 66-QQ. So I think you should concentrate on his Kx, Ax and draws (65hh,55,maybe a floated QJhh). I think all those latter hands will continue to a bit bet. so betting 30 into 47 is actually a HUGE mistake. You should be betting at least 39. I actually don't think there any bet size is too big there. He is going to have KX as well as A2,A3,A4,A5 in his range which are not folding even to a 90 dollar bet! I think I prefer betting 45 to get called by Kx still. But betting double pot is fine too. I repeat, betting 30 is way too little!

River

My general take is not to go for river check raises against fish. They will surprise you with ridiculously nitty check backs, like he might check back KT here, thinking the pot is big enough for his hand. (You have to understand fish think differently about pot. $100 is a big pot for him.) Also, if he does bet, he will often times bet very small.

Now that is not to say that check raising is always bad. Some fish are very aggressive and will bet even 77 on the river for no good reason. But in general trend towards betting yourself. 30/7 stats indicate passivity, so I would certainly bet myself.

As for sizing, I think you should target his Kx. whatever amount he will call with trips. I think betting 340, over triple pot, is a bit too much. I don't hate it, but I think the golden amount is more around 170, where he will just snap call Kx and might still call Ax.

Overall

Turn bet sizing is the biggest mistake in this hand. Simple concept: strong hands versus fish -> bet big! (Not always true of course, but here with the possible turned flushdraw it fits)

Hey there.

My thought process OTF:

We cant guarantee villain will cbet 100% of the time here, and therefore I would always donkbet here for value to make sure the flop wont go ch ch and I miss one street of value against the fish. So in order for me to be somewhat balanced I think I have to go for the donkbet if I also want to take this line for value.

I do however see your argument for c/calling or c/raising if our assumption would be that villain will cbet this board 100% of the time, but I actually think you'll see players check back here from time to time, which is why I prefer the donkbet.

As for the turn, I should probably have bet bigger indeed. I just tend to think that these overcards will look scary to the fish, even if they have Kx and fold to a large bet, but that might be a bit pessimistic. So yeah, I should def have bet bigger.

Thoughts?

Solid analysis btw! tyty

Ended up betting 150$ OTR btw, and the fish tanked forever and then called with KJ

Originally posted by lnternet

Flop

I think donking is a clear mistake. You absolutely need to allow UT to cbet this, he will be putting in money there very often with very weak hands. So if you have a set, you surely want to check. If you have a Kx you also want to check for sure. And with a draw you should therefor check as well. Whether to check raise or check call we will see when the action get's back. But donking, even though it works out ok with this hand, is not a play you should be going for here ever.

As a cash game noob, could you elaborate on what factors help us decide whether to ch/c or ch/R (in this hand) depending on the action?

Thanks

Originally posted by Tim64

Originally posted by lnternet
Flop

I think donking is a clear mistake. You absolutely need to allow UT to cbet this, he will be putting in money there very often with very weak hands. So if you have a set, you surely want to check. If you have a Kx you also want to check for sure. And with a draw you should therefor check as well. Whether to check raise or check call we will see when the action get's back. But donking, even though it works out ok with this hand, is not a play you should be going for here ever.

As a cash game noob, could you elaborate on what factors help us decide whether to ch/c or ch/R (in this hand) depending on the action?
Thanks

Like every poker decision, you think about the likely outcomes of each action and then pick the action with the highest expectation.

With a draw here the main concern is going to be how the turn plays. If you check call flop, and face a turn bet, how good of a situation is that? Do you just have an easy turn check fold? Easy check raise? Or is it going to be a difficult situation. Some questions if you check raise flop: If he 3bets, what do you do? If he calls, how does the turn play out?

These things will depend on the flop sizing chosen by the PFR, and you can of course use your stats. If he 2barrels very frequently, check call flop into check raise turn is a great line with both draws and nut hands.

Originally posted by axelphoney
Hey there.

My thought process OTF:

We cant guarantee villain will cbet 100% of the time here, and therefore I would always donkbet here for value to make sure the flop wont go ch ch and I miss one street of value against the fish. So in order for me to be somewhat balanced I think I have to go for the donkbet if I also want to take this line for value.

I do however see your argument for c/calling or c/raising if our assumption would be that villain will cbet this board 100% of the time, but I actually think you'll see players check back here from time to time, which is why I prefer the donkbet.

As for the turn, I should probably have bet bigger indeed. I just tend to think that these overcards will look scary to the fish, even if they have Kx and fold to a large bet, but that might be a bit pessimistic. So yeah, I should def have bet bigger.

Thoughts?

Solid analysis btw! tyty

Hi

I would argue that even if the preflop raiser cbets only 50% of the time you prefer check raising a set over donking. If you donk, the preflop raiser only puts money into the pot with maybe 30% of his range. The extra 20% of his range which cbets is dead money that you miss out on by donking.

It might go check-check-check, yes. But what do they hold when that happens? Most of the time they will have hands that would have folded to a donk bet anyway! It might actually be good for you if it goes check-check-check and you have a set: Imagine the PFR has AQ and the fish has QJ:heart::heart:, turn card rolls off as it did (on the A turn you of course go for another check raise!).