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NL100 Q3s

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($102)
($103)

Dealt to Hero 3♠ Q♠

calls $0.50, Hero checks

FLOP ($2) 6♠ 5♠ Q♦

Hero bets $2, calls $2

TURN ($6) 6♠ 5♠ Q♦ J♦

Hero bets $5, calls $5

RIVER ($16) 6♠ 5♠ Q♦ J♦ 2♠

Hero bets $10, raises to $20 HEro?

villain: 60/9
20-30 hands

I typical spot where I autopilot shove with almost all flushes against fishes, but as he showed up with the nutflush (like so many times before) it got me thinking.

What is the worst flush (if no flush at all) you'd shove here against a fish?

At this point I had no reads, but as you can see from the stats villain is obv a very fishy player


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

im guessing he open limps at least 80% of hands? I think you can shove QXss + and call the rest, but you might want to determine his actual limping range then count whether you can have thin value with JXss as well, I seriously doubt you can shove any worse.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

assuming he limps with any two suited cards and raises AJ+/99+/KJ+

Better Flushes
AsXs (5 combos)
KsXs (5-6 combos)
10-11 combos

Worse Flushes
QsXs (6 combos)
JsXs (5 combos)
TsXs (4 combos)
9sXs (3 combos)
8sXs (2 combos)
7sXs (1 combos)
21 combos

Looks like my guess was right


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veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello axelphoney,

Guess I'd be ending up calling there instead of shoving, the shove is also really thin with Q high flush:

Board: 6♠5♠Q♦ J♦ 2♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { Qs3s }
MP3    50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, Qs7s, Js7s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Js5s, Ts5s, 9s5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, Ks4s, Qs4s, Js4s, Ts4s, 7s4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, As3s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Js3s, 5s3s, 4s3s, As2s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Js2s }

for those given equities. So it's kinda 50/50 case for us whilst we may even often face high flushes. Though would consider doing that with K high.

Best Regards.


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