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Q8s

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akasoul
Joined: 17.06.2007

Party, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

So on the flop I have like 23% equity with my hand and I need 1/9=11% to call so I call, but on the turn my equity goes down and I just trow my hand.

Its my calc ok???

Equity Win Tie
CO 33.42% 31.53% 1.89% 66-44, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q4s, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo-A3o, KJo-K7o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+
BU 23.13% 21.64% 1.49% Qd8d
SB 43.45% 41.27% 2.18% 88-66, ATs-A2s, KJs-K7s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A8o, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 Q
CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (6 SB) 3 T J (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) T (3 players)
SB bets, 2 folds


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OK, if I was to say what I think about this hand, here go my 2c.

I'd give you about 3.5 outs on the gs and 1.5 outs to the Q, giving 5 outs ~ 20% equity. But since you will fold to a bet on the turn UI because you won't have enough odds, you cannot rely on equity if you are planning on folding to a turn bet. With those 5 outs you have 1:8.4 odds, and you won't know if a Q actually gives you the best hand and open a couple of redraws. So I'd say it's a fold here.

You could call if you went all in with that call for instance.

EDIT: Oh! I forgot the BDFD (I hate it when it happens at the tables!!) That would be 6 outs (~24%) and 1:6.8, so everything changes. I've changed my mind and now think it's a call flop fold turn UI (see that if you get your FD by the turn you'll have enough pot odds to call profitable once more, so you can count the BDFD out)


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Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

Dont mix equity with odds&outs!!!!Its a common mistake that I see on these forums.

Equity tells you how often you are going to win on SD against your oponent ranges.But that obviously is only the case when you are planning on going to SD which you are clearly not.

Odds and outs simply tell what price are you getting for calling another street to see another card.
This part you calculated quite well: 3,5 GS+ (1,5-2) Q+ 2(BDSD+BDFD) and something little for 8...therefore around 7,5 outs all together which demands odds of around 1:5,5.

Its always important to think about other important factors which may alter these numbers a bit:

-implied/reverse implied odds... I consider implied odds to be higher than reverse implied ones despite FD... GS is obvious that will net you a lot when you hit but even when you hit Q you will still get payed off by Jx,Tx which are most likely hands.Sure you have to discount times when you will be paying off flushes and other monsters but these are way less likely.

-position...important how many players will still act behind you,the more there are better odds you need and less there are better for you...in this case you are last to act therefore best possible scenario

Last phase....Flop is giving you 1:8 and you need 1:5,5 being last to act... Its a super easy call and folding would be a big mistake.The fact that Im last to act I would even call 1:5 odds here.


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