utg 22, cbet on monotone board?

Hello Imimba1,

I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ♥? ♦ And what about an Ace?

Best Regards.

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Imimba1,

I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ♥? ♦ And what about an Ace?

Best Regards.

It's pure math. If I get a random hand, it's 42% that I have a :heart:. But with one in my hands, and 3 on the board, it's 32%. (I'm very good at math, believe me pls ♠_love:)

Well, 68% of the times he doesnt even has one :heart:.

I'd just bet and collect the dead money. I dont wanna see so many cards.

What do you think?

He might call with a lot of hands, the wet board only makes his fold more unlikely. I'd never cbet here as I think I have no fold equity.

Originally posted by Imimba1

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Imimba1,

I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ♥? ♦ And what about an Ace?

Best Regards.

It's pure math. If I get a random hand, it's 42% that I have a :heart:. But with one in my hands, and 3 on the board, it's 32%. (I'm very good at math, believe me pls ♠_love:)

Well, 68% of the times he doesnt even has one :heart:.

I'd just bet and collect the dead money. I dont wanna see so many cards.

What do you think?

Well, and what do you do with the number? ♦ You know the number but for what you using it?

Originally posted by veriz
Well, and what do you do with the number? ♦ You know the number but for what you using it?

68% of the times he doesnt even have a :heart:. But yeah, apat from that, the board is very connected. Possible SDs, and broadways love this board aswell.
Would you jsut chb?

Originally posted by Imimba1

Originally posted by veriz
Well, and what do you do with the number? ♦ You know the number but for what you using it?

68% of the times he doesnt even have a :heart:. But yeah, apat from that, the board is very connected. Possible SDs, and broadways love this board aswell.
Would you jsut chb?

Correct. And what can you do with the 68%, okay you know it, so what? ♦

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68% goes out the window against a 39/5 ♦.

I think you need to think a little further about why you want to c-bet.

On balance, in my view its probably a decent decision (its close), but I would say for me the rationale would be different:

1. Hands that miss the board will fold to you, and given your hand they probably have half decent equity against you (ie. at least two over-cards to your hand and potentially gut shots).

2. The range of hands that call you are probably only around 60% odd equity against your hand, so your still not in bad shape. To clarify, the range will include:

Open Ended Stright Draws
Flush draws
Combo Draws
Pairs
Two Pair / Sets

The only problem is that if your opponent is aggressive they may raise you will a fair chunk of this range - Removing your equity.

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