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Turning TPTK into a bluff

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($78)
BB ($678)
UTG ($225)
UTG+1 ($265)
Hero ($211)
MP1 ($243)
MP2 ($244)
CO ($242)
BTN ($238)

Dealt to Hero A :diamond: Q :club:

UTG raises to $4, fold, Hero calls $4, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($11) Q♦ 2♠ 8♣

UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7

TURN ($25) Q♦ 2♠ 8♣ 7♠

UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18

RIVER ($61) Q♦ 2♠ 8♣ 7♠ 3♥

UTG bets $43, Hero ????

1.3kh
11% OR UTG 47% WWSF, 41%W$SD, 42% AGG
CB Flop/Turn/River 74/59/83

What do you think about turning AQ into a bluff here? Raising around 100$ on the river...


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2 replies
veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello cadhucat,

Welcome to the English NL Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

Preflop: What's the reason for calling a min-raise from UTG here? What would you think about taking the initiative on you?

As played
Postflop: Would be spew? You clearly he is representing a very strong range here and you rarely will have fold equity. Whatever he folds you have beat with calling.

Best Regards.


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My hand was QQ in reality, the reason I called pre was because of his high agression postflop, but 3beting is definitively an option (probably better) because he doesnt fold a lot to 3bets.

Postflop: Would be spew? You clearly he is representing a very strong range here and you rarely will have fold equity. Whatever he folds you have beat with calling.

Our perceived range here is superstrong, we flated preflop vs utg and we called 3 barrels on the driest board ever, so dont have any pure bluffs nor busted draws, cant really imagine any reg with half a brain calling here with worse than 22, unless he knows we like to turn SDV into bluff.

As I said I expect most of the regs to fold 22 or worse on the river. So he has only 7 combos to call with. If I raise to 100$ I need 50% FE.
Bet/fold hands:
KK+ = 9 combos
22 = 3 combos > probably a fold in utg anyways
AQ = 6 combos > dont think he bets the river though.

We have at least 9 bet/fold combos, should be profitable. If he is valuebetting AQ its like printing money.

A call seems terrible to me, he never value bets anything worse, and I dont think he has any bluffs here either.


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