140BB KK facing river shove

I am not cbetting the Flop that much (65-70% Flop cbet).

LOL u made my day

About the hand :

What's ur value range here ? If u have all sets and 2p on the river, it's easy fold with KK (I assume this one because of 70% cbet).
But if u c/r a lot of flops and turns with nuts, u probably should call. Especially when u have that note about capped range.

Also I don't like potting that river. He could easily fold KQ to this sizing. He definitely has some 2p, str8 and set combos, so basically we're turning our hand into a bluff since he calls AQ+.

very unlikley he has a 3, only reasonable hands he might have are QT, QJ, QK, AQ, KT and maybe a full house w JJ or 99, but most of time i think JJ, 99 are 3betting flop in 6max games and that limits. KT still i think he bets flop, i would give him KQ here.

If you would tell if you called and what did he have i so wanna know

@getdotacom: why I think it's a reasonable average cbet stat, nothing too out of line. I'm referring to overall and not specifically to that flop. I suppose you play more of a balanced checking style with 50% cbet?

I see myself check/folding some pocket pairs and some pure air so I assumed he shouldn't be calling flop too wide.

I think I probably slowplay QQ often on Flop, and sometimes I c/r KTs on Turn but probably betting everything else. I would have folded AA here but called cos of blockers.

I'm not sure about your comments about potting river. I block KQ and given I raised UTG i think he folds KQo most of the time, leaving him with 2 combos of KQs. Feel like I'm quite far ahead and I think I would bluff enough % of the time for him to be forced to call AQ.

Worse
AQ (12 combos)
QJs (2 combos)
Total: 14 combos

Better
KTs (2)
JJ (1.5)
99 (1)
Ac3c (1)
Total: 5.5 combos

Ohh, sorry, I missread board a little bit. I thought it didn't pair.

You list his BT 3bet %, but what about his CC%?

I think your turn size could a bit bigger. most of his hands continue to a 50/72 bet there, so you should charge more. I wouldn't go too big, like overbetting, because you have a fair number of thin value hands yourself (you are not super polarized), but maybe a pot sized bet seems better.

River I think a check raise is an option, but maybe it's a bit too thin.

When you bet river I think a normal to large size is good.

When he jams we are bluffcatching.
His most likely value hands are JJ,A3cc,KT,T8. He might not jam A3,T8 as it's a bit thin. He might 3b JJ pre or raise flop with it. He might raise KT on the turn. So I don't think he has too many value hands.
His most likely bluff hands are anything that called twice. no pair AK,AT, weak pair T9,AJ,KJ,JT. Maybe even QT where he feels like he can't call. While I don't think it's standard for any of those hands to jam river, there is certainly a long list of them, and they all have some sort of blocker which might convince him they are good bluff jams.

So if I had to make a read I would think he is bluffing here more often then he should be, and all bluffcatchers, including KK, are a call.

yeah, there are lots of hands in villain's turn call range that are candidates to bluff the river, but if villain is somewhat solid, isn't it very unlikely that he's going to bluffraise when a) hero range is un-capped and b) it's very likely that hero will expect villain to raise all value hands except A3s on the turn most of the time? or is this a spot where nl500 players often slowplay IP on the turn to mix things up?

also, what about our perceived range? if we successfully polarized it with the big riverbet, then won't he just flat-call JT etc to bluffcatch vs AK etc? or do we think villain puts enough KK/AA , maybe even AQ, or JT etc. turned into a bluff in our range? i dunno what hero's image/history is like

also, won't villain suspect that we realise that a) the board is fairly good for villain and b) we look like there's a lot of AK+some other draws in our turn range, and thus lots of air that might want to bluff river?

or is all of that just dumb levelling that will eventually become obsolete?

I totally agree with internet to keep this post small,

if it was me I would have called river as I am leaning towards a bluff.

so tell me what did he have ??????

in saying that , if villain did flop set he played it good, if i had flopped set id flat each bet till river,

maybe he has set of 3's?

i think he would have 3bet jj & qq pre and i dont know his C/C % .

he had 99, rly didnt expect it plus he reps rly narrow and i wasn't too sure how wide his bluffing range was