$0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Known players:
[tg]MP3$27.11:///////;CO$3.61:///////;BU (Hero)$34.08:///////;SB$11.70:///////;BB$32.14:///////;UTG1$28.02:///////;UTG2$12.30:///////;MP1$25.00:///////;MP2$8.95:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with A:h, 8:c.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.75, MP2 folds.
Preflop: I bluff 3bet with a blocker in position vs. a regular that has a fold to 3bet of 74% in MP. The reg folds, a fish in the BB calls
The fish has stats of 55/10 over a sample of 20 hands, so I dont have any reliable postflop stats on him.
Flop: ($4.85) 8:s, 3:s, 4:h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50.
I bet for value w. TPTK
Turn: ($11.85) 3:h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.00, BB calls $8.00.
I bet again and expect him to call with a worse 8, FDs, 56, maybe even OCs
River: ($27.85) 3:c (2 players)
BB bets $10.00,Hero ?
Now he bets, I split with all 8x hands. A bluff with missed spades or 56 would be a terrible play becaue he cant expect me to fold on this board runout, but Im not sure if he knows this.
He also has Overpairs in his range for sure. I doubt that he blockbets hands that I beat like 66 or 77.
I get 3.8:1 on the call. So I need about 21% Equity
I gave him overpairs (99-QQ), 3 combos of missed spades and some 8x hands that I split.
Board: 4h8s3s3h3c
Equity Win Tie
Villain 83.87% 77.42% 6.45% { QQ-99, 98s, 87s, AsKs, AsQs, As2s }
Hero 16.13% 9.68% 6.45% { Ah8c }
With only 16% EQ, the call is -EV.
If I give him 77 in his range it becomes +EV, but I dont think this is realistic. Hard to say cause he is 55/10 and I dont know anything about him.
Overall, I think its a fold. What do you guys think ?
