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3,3$ floped set, ugly river

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kolacar
Joined: 15.05.2010

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 2030795
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t4554 75.90 BBs
Hero (MP2): t4886 81.43 BBs
CO: t2838 47.30 BBs
BTN: t3410 56.83 BBs
SB: t2774 46.23 BBs
BB: t3175 52.92 BBs
UTG: t2830 47.17 BBs
UTG+1: t3000 50 BBs
UTG+2: t10705 178.42 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is MP2 with 8 :diamond: 8 :spade:
3 folds, MP1 raises to t179, Hero calls t179, 3 folds, BB calls t119

Flop: (t567) K :spade: 8 :heart: T :club: (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets t300, Hero calls t300, BB folds

Turn: (t1167) A :diamond: (2 players)
MP1 bets t660, Hero raises to t1920, MP1 calls t1260

River: (t5007) A :club: (2 players)
MP1 bets t2155 all in, Hero ???

MP1 is 26/15/4.0 over 34 hands

Is this an easy fold on river even considering pot odds?
Should I shove turn?


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5 replies
Wohmfg
Joined: 12.11.2009

On the river you need 30% equity to make a break even call.

If we give villain a range that is good enough to call your turn raise and that he will raise preflop, it is something like KK+, TT, A8s+, ATo+. Your hand has ~49% equity on the river which makes it a snap call.

Shoving turn is over kill, as there are no rivers you are folding. Even a Q or J on the river is ok as there are not that many Qx/Jx hands in his range once he calls the turn raise.


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kolacar
Joined: 15.05.2010

A8o is beting flop, and calling huge turn raise? Not likely!


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Wohmfg
Joined: 12.11.2009

I think it's likely that A8s would cbet the flop and call a turn raise, if you don't think that's likely then take it out of the range I suggested and see how much equity you have. :)


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JohnTheGreatest
Joined: 28.01.2010

Hi, kolacar! :)

Most of the time you are waaay ahead of his hand here (on river), imo - every two pair hands, and straights are calling as well on turn.

It was just a bad luck if he had A8,TT or KK! ;)

And I'm calling here on river (at least myself)


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Tiltberger
Joined: 23.06.2005

Hey kolacar!

I think you played this hand fine!
River is a snapcall! Why do you think you're beat? I would say you're ahead here in at least 60-70% of the times! Maybe more!

Greets,
Tiltberger


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