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K5o on bubble really short

 
Hand discussions for Sit and Go-Tournaments
Last Post by ghaleon 14 years ago
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sirilidion
sirilidion
Joined: 15.04.2008
Posts: 1,650
25.12.2012, 16:48

PokerStars NLHE Tournament, t100/t200/t25 blinds, 4 handed, 50%/30%/20% payouts
Hand exported from the SitNGo Wizard. How to import this hand into the SitNGo Wizard.
{Tournament|PokerStars|||100|200|25|NLHE Full Table}
CO: t7796 35 BBs{Player|CO|7796|RaiseTo|400|Overridden|49|49}
BTN: t3392 15 BBs{Player|BTN|3392|Fold|0}
SB: t1565 7 BBs{Player|SB|1565|Fold|0}
Hero: t747 3.3 BBs{Player|Hero|747|Kd|5c}

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♦5♣
CO raises to t400 (26.4+), 2 folds, Hero?

Opponent calling ranges when hero pushes:
CO (26+)

How come dispite being so short on the bubble getting in my 3 adj. bb with K5o is still so big -EV? ( -2.04)
Sng-Wiz suggest only getting it is with 14.2 % (33+,A8+,A5s+,KJs+) when putting edge on 0
Would it really be better to fold and have only 397 more behind on the sb the next hand?


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kurrkabin
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010
Posts: 5,893
26.12.2012, 12:08

Merry Christmas to begin with!

Edge is not zero for hero. It would be minus .4-5 or something. At least that's my estimation. It will still show it as an minus EV push. Those spots suck, but I would def, def. go outside of nash/wiz here as they overvalue our chips and we are very short, the difference with the nearest midstack is also big(he has us covered by double the chips). I will get here any pair, any ace, suited connectors, broadway, suited kings...k5o seems weakish though. I don't think it's gonna be good. K5s though is a different story.


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sirilidion
sirilidion
Joined: 15.04.2008
Posts: 1,650
26.12.2012, 19:06

why would having about 2 to1 odds not be enough to make this call considering the spot where in?


Best mtt result this year: 379th in Sunday Storm for $ 543
Best ever (online): ( biggest single cash ever $ 2258.40 in a $ $ 11 deepstack mtt for 2nd place)
Goal this year get my bankroll to $ 5000 through mtt's and stt's

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kurrkabin
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010
Posts: 5,893
26.12.2012, 19:48

Cuz of the huge risk aversion/ICM tax. If it was cEV, I would agree, but not in STT, especially not on the bubble. If wiz here overvalues our stack, which I agree it does, we still can't ignore it completely!


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ghaleon
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
Posts: 11,320
26.12.2012, 20:07

If you put villain to that tight range then you won't be doing well enough versus it. Even if you can make somewhat -EV calls. In nash we would have clear call with Kx in this spot, but it also assume CO would be playing much wider range.

What sort of player villain is (any stats?). Has he been abusing bubble? Did you estimate his range yourself or used some wiz default one?


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