Hi!
Well I suggest you have more fun with the equilator.Just put in the ranges and you will get some idea on how equities change on different boards vs different position. This flop is quite nice for you and should definatelly continue. With something like AQ you are definatelly a slight favourite,with A9 you are prolly slight dog,but lets see...your oponent stats even though small sample seem quite fine so using something like standard PS.com chart for his OR seem fit...
Equity Win Tie
BU 49.10% 47.51% 1.59% 33+, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o
BB 50.90% 49.31% 1.59% Ah9d
O.k. so about 50/50. So you can play c/c or c/r depending on how much you know him. Since he seem quite agro and since I guess you would call quite a lot on this board(but not bluff!) I wouldnt mind to have a bit bigger value part of my calling range...so I would add even these slightly bigger Ax here. But with like AQ I would c/r,lets take a look,...
Equity Win Tie
BU 42.17% 40.57% 1.60% 33+, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o
BB 57.83% 56.23% 1.60% AQo
Turncard then is very good for you so if he bets you have to call again...equity actually get a big higher
Equity Win Tie
BU 44.47% 41.62% 2.85% 33+, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o
BB 55.53% 52.69% 2.85% Ah9d
Sure he may not be betting his whole range but still you are far from the needed to call and be quite SD bound here. There is actually no river that makes me fold.
But he checks,so he doesnt have a pair almost for sure unless his stats are totally random. 8x must bet for value,4x is ahead almost always and 3x looses way too much value. He also should be betting most of his Ax here(especially the strong ones). I also dont think that he has complete garbage often since he should double barrel with like 9T here since you have a lot of trash as well....so I would say he has some Ax(A2,A5,A6,A7 among most likely),Kx and Qx(these are acutally most likely among better players since these have SDvalue and at the same time wont get many better hands to fold) and also some other hands for sure but these are in minority
So on the river at first you have to realise that you are not going anywhere. Only A2,A5,22 got impoved and you are still beaten by better Ax,which will often cbet turn so they should be discounted a bit too. But there are still many worse hands that intend to often call here. Hands like Kx,A6,A7,maybe even some Qx hands...so I would actually go for a thin valuebet since I think the bet goes in much better that way and also since I think you should not be inducing much on this card. Most of these hands will be glad that you checked and will check behind.The times when he bets A5,A2,AK,AQ,AJ you will loose the same anyway as he will bet if you check.
Hope it makes sense:)
A
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