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(PLO8)ATJJds, nut flop, nut turn, ugly river?

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On the bubble in a PLO8 tournament on PS. 1 hand beats me and to me it's a likely hand to be up against. Villan is tight and passive, although chipleader.
On the flop any A4xx or flush draw is in his range, and any low A24x, A34x A23x type of hands. Since we both have chips I find it unlikley to be up against rags in this spot on the bubble.
Is fold a correct play or should I call and face a knockout on the bubble if I'm wrong?

Poker Stars $10+$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 2067891
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): t33129 41.41 BBs
UTG+1: t11077 13.85 BBs
MP: t3256 4.07 BBs
CO: t4790 5.99 BBs
BTN: t8136 10.17 BBs
SB: t45380 56.73 BBs
BB: t55356 69.19 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is UTG with T :club: T :heart: A :club: J :heart:
Hero raises to t1600, 5 folds, BB calls t800

Flop: (t3600) T :spade: 2 :club: 3 :club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2400, BB calls t2400

Turn: (t8400) 2 :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t8400, BB calls t8400

River: (t25200) 2 :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets t25200
Hero?


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8 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi, Heitzenizer...
If you can fold the top full house, you're a better man than I, Gunga Din

If you happen to be female, then perhaps not.

In any event, I'll move this to the Omaha strategy board, since I know squat about Omaha.

Best of luck!
--VS


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If he is tight and passive, and it's a bubble... I don't know. So hard to fold, but what else could he have than quads? If you fold, you would still have over 10bb stack to get you over the bubble. The only hands he could do that for value are AAxx and 33xx. Both are very unlikely due the way hand has been played.

Lets wait until some PLO8 expert comes. :)


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Tricky to post tournament hands except Hold'em. :)

The way I was thinking was on flop there's lot's of possible holdings, but when I pot turn and get an insta call, I can't put him on something besides A2xx or someone being stubborn with A4xx.
But what can he put me on? I raise UTG on the bubble with the chipleader in the bb. It's even more likely that I have A2xx so it's one of the worst bluff cards possible.

Anyhow. Appreciate any insights.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I am not a great PLO8 player, nor a great tournament player. Personally I think that I would lost my balls and fold there, and get over the bubble with 10bb stack. Especially when hero has just half a pot left and folding equity should be quite small.


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It's actually even 24bb if I fold. So Im pretty much guaranteed to make the money.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Oh yeah, sorry I looked hero's stack wrongly. I would fold.

You even block Ac so he can't have aces with nfd there on the flop.


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

At this stage of a tournament if villain just had a naked A4 I would expect him to fold the turn, so I really think he has a piece of the board. Obviously with you blocking the nut flush draw this weighs heavily towards villain holding a deuce.

I think it's fine to fold here because if BB has a hand like AA himself he really has to fear you holding the deuce given the way you played the turn.

I don't see how this can be anything other than something like A25x ( I would expect a checkraise from A24x on the turn).

Actually thinking about it, maybe even A25x raises the turn so this hand would be something like 2456 to fit in with his betting pattern (where he can't raise the turn with his weak kicker and weak low draw).


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So is it a fold or call? :)

It's such a weird hand in a weird situation.
Anyway, I ended up folding and made it to the 4th spot.


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