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nl10 SH J9s BW

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Beseventh
Joined: 06.01.2010

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2137272
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $11.07 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 2,4, Hands: 28591
SB: $12.30 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: 1,9, Hands: 20463
Hero (BB): $11.31 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 2,5, Hands: 40606
CO: $12.88 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2,6, Hands: 77176

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 9 :spade: J :spade:
2 folds, SB raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.40) 7 :club: Q :club: Q :heart: (2 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.00) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ??

1st thought was should I 3b here since he folding alot to 3bets vs BB but then I looked in my hand it looked not bad so I didn't want to change my hand into completely bluff.

FLOP : This board is good for raise cb vs weak villain. Villain has smallish WTSD and 46% fold to cb raise. Now how we calculate if our raise is going to be profiable ?

Is it : (bet / bet + pot) *100% = FE ?
In this case : (0.8/ 0.8+0.7)*100% ~ 53% so if number of my FE is greater than his fold to cb raise is it EV+ ?

Turn since he called I see in his range Qx type hands most the time only and sets for sure.


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3 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi,

Raising the Flop here is purely an explotive play. If you think he just folds really often you can attack the PFR in this spot some % of the time.

If you bother about being somewhat balanced though, I think we will often be 3betting AQ preflop, and we often call KQ/QJ/QT on the paired Flop. I think I prefer raising the Flop with backdoor draws, something like Jc9x or Jh9h, so that we can barrel more Turn cards.

If we are raising any two cards here I think we may be raising too often here but in a vacuum I think it's reasonable.

On the Turn I don't like barreling blanks. We should bet clubs to rep some flop flush draw semibluff raises but just give up on all other turn cards.

Thanks.


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Beseventh
Joined: 06.01.2010

Thanks ,

Ok and what about FE how to implement math here ?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

We are risking 80cents more to win a pot of 1.50. Thus, our bluff needs to work 53% of the time.

If we get folds >53% of the time (which I'm pretty confident you can achieve in a vacuum), then go ahead and do it.

But good players will pick up on the fact that you are often bluff raising such paired flops and they will start to bet/call Flop with Ace high and play back at you by 3bet bluffing sometimes.

Thanks.


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