SH NL50 zoom JJ 3bet pot OOP vs Fishy

Hi,

Why check/call? What do you expect him to bluff with or do you expect him to vbet more than he calls with?

Board: 2♥8♣4♣ 9♣ 4♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    20.76%  20.47%   0.29% { TT, JdJc, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7c, 7h7c, 7s7c, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6s6c, 5d5c, 5h5c, 5s5c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 3d3c, 3h3c, 3s3c, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, A5s-A3s, K9s, QTs, 75s+, 65s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QdJd, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JdTd, JcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jd9d, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qs8s, Jd8d, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Th7h, Tc7c, 9h7h, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ac6c, 9h6h, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 8d5d, 8h5h, 8s5s, Ac2c, 3c2c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcJd, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9d, Ah9s, As9d, As9h, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, Ah8s, As8d, As8h, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, KcJd, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJc, QcJd }
MP3    79.24%  78.95%   0.29% { JhJs }

There is about 171 combos in his range OTR, if I bet 1/2 pot bet, he will call with ~ 18 worse combos (TT,A9o,98s, maybee some more 9x hands), and he has about 38 combos that beat me flushes + 22;44;88;99 so I definatly do not have value bet OTR. But from all his 171 combo what he have OTR ~100 is which he could turn in to a bluff. I do not know this particular fish tendecys, there are fishes who turn everything into a bluff, and there is who do not turn anything in to bluff. He has 38 combos which beat me so I need him only to turn 16 combos from 100 he has into a bluff for my call to be breakeavn. (I am geting ~30%, right?). And he could sometime "Value bet" 98 or TT. What do you think about my "analysis".

Hi,

I'm not counting on fishes to turn stuff into bluffs. Upon first looking at this hand and knowing that villain is a fish, my first instinct is to shove immediately. He is probably calling down with some 8X hands, maybe even 77/66/55 as well.

So I would just half pot the River here. I think we are letting our opponent have a free showdown with all worse hands and allow him to value bet vs us with better.

I agree that a loose/passive player will show up with many flush combos here but I think he is gonna have stuff like 89o/T8/A8/K8 and some 9X floats which are all probably going to call down. In terms of number of combos, there are going to be more one pair hands compared to suited club hands which have made the flush.