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QQ weird spot

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just seems so unlikey for him to jam worse than AK/QQ, maybe he even folds AK here, idk

3b:11, ft4b:3/8, 4b+ratio:4.3
100bb deep id stack this off any time given positions and PF aggro stats, but what now?

seeems like if i want to 4b/f then id be better off just flatting pre, but if i flat, UTG is very likely to jam and if SB jams after that as well, ill have the same tough spot, so....

iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $109.11
UTG: $22.85 (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: $58.66 (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 65)
CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 27.34, PFR: 24.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 140)
BTN: $59.20 (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
SB: $66.85 (VPIP: 23.69, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 10.85, Hands: 330)

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q♠ Q♥

UTG raises to $2.00, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $6.50, Hero raises to $15.00, UTG raises to $22.85, SB raises to $66.85 and is all-in, Hero????

Spoiler

fold

Flop: ($60.70, 2 players) T♦ 4♠ J♥

Turn: ($60.70, 2 players) 6♣

River: ($60.70, 2 players) 7♣

UTG shows 8♣ 8♥ (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 56%, Flop 60%, Turn 77%)
SB shows A♦ K♥ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 44%, Flop 40%, Turn 23%)
UTG wins $57.70

SB wins $0.00


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1 reply

Hi Zumpar,

Preflop: Weird spot indeed.

If we were 100 BB deep this would be an easy call imo. Like this we still have 100 BB behind and I doubt SB's 3-bet vs UTG midstack and then shove over cold 4-bet and shove is a weak range. At best we are hoping for AK so his range to me looks AK/QQ+.

I think JJ or AQ will have a hard time stacking off so your fold is on the tighter side but I think it's the correct play.
After some simple calculation we see that we need 34%+ equity (+ because of rake).

And we have this much versus a sample range:

BB 32.57% 31.08% 1.49% QQ
SB 43.42% 40.00% 3.42% QQ+, AKs, AKo
UTG 24.01% 21.32% 2.69% 88+, AQs+, AKo

If we add JJ/AQs in SBs range we barely go up to 36%


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