OOP marginal vs (percieved)polarized range as PFR, turn-river play

The situation is, you (open)raise with a not too loose, not too tight range (around 25%), tight players in position calls, a fish also calls. You cbet the flop for value vs the fish, the tighish player calls your cbet, the fish folds. The flop is somewhat connected and is twotone. Turn is a blank.

What is your gameplan from the Turn? Please explain in great detail.

How would your plan look vs different opponents?
What are the red flags that would make you give up, and where would you do that?
Also, how would you play the rest of your ranges?

This is so opponent dependent. People are usually polarized here, they either have some combo draw or some gutshot turned into a bluff, or they have the nuts.

I think JT ~= AT here, but AT is better JT blocks some QJ KJ J8 straight draws. Good thing about your hand here is that you have no hearts and diamonds, so this makes a bluff catch better.

I would also argue that TX > AA here, assuming both have the same relative hand strength (villain never raises Turn with anything in between), cos having TX allows you to block value combos of TT and T9

I think it's reasonable to c/c T and c/c R in this spot, but it must be done vs someone who is balanced and is capable of bluff raising Turn and shoving River.

I think the cbet is fine, we want to isolate the fish and we can go for thin value as well vs the fish who will never fold any draw and probably any TX hand which we beat.

Turn and river play is fine IMO, he can have so many busted draws. I think this is more of a call than Hand 1 (which is more opponent dependent)

I think this is badly played. Firstly people aren't used to dealing well with turn raises at NL100/NL50.

Secondly, a merge turn raise only makes more sense when ranges are wider (Blind vs Blind where you choose to slowplay AQ or AK preflop and you can make merged Flop or Turn raises repping some draw).

In early positions and given the 3way dynamic, you are just over-representing your hand.

Originally posted by mbml
This is so opponent dependent. People are usually polarized here, they either have some combo draw or some gutshot turned into a bluff, or they have the nuts.

I think JT ~= AT here, but AT is better JT blocks some QJ KJ J8 straight draws. Good thing about your hand here is that you have no hearts and diamonds, so this makes a bluff catch better.

I would also argue that TX > AA here, assuming both have the same relative hand strength (villain never raises Turn with anything in between), cos having TX allows you to block value combos of TT and T9

I think it's reasonable to c/c T and c/c R in this spot, but it must be done vs someone who is balanced and is capable of bluff raising Turn and shoving River.

Interesting points about blockers, I will take notes. I only thought about that my JT blocks 2combos of TT. I Never thought about it more deeply about the fact that having no heart in my hand is a good hand and that my J could block some of his bluff combos.

You analyzed all the hands separately. I actually want to talk about this situation.

Hand 3, I raised to see what villain will do (what is a regular reaction to this raise). I imagined I played against myself. Because if he would play like I did in the first two hands, then my raise is good because my perceived range is polarized and he will call with midlepair, 2ndpair.

Let's take hand 1. You are on the turn. What I know about the villain is what you know, that he plays 17/15 in around 40 hands, anonymous table - this doesn't tell us much about him, only that he is probably not a fish. (I had sessions where after 100 hands I had 9/5, just because I was card dead so the 17/15 can't be of much reliance). Postflop until now he doesn't have crazy aggressive stats.

Imagine yourself playing the hand. I guess preflop and flop would go the same.
How do you play from the turn? What exact betsizing are you using, or line (with what conditions on villains betsizing if he bets), and with what plan?

Originally posted by Gabinr1
I imagined I played against myself.

here is the big mistake. You should make the best play against the average opponent if you are readless. Don't over-think things and then assume people are thinking the same way you do. People don't bluff raise the Turn too often at NL50/100. It's not unconceivable that there are some players who now know how to do that (as opposed to 2-3 years ago where this was pretty much unheard of). However those guys are usuallly the best LAGs at the limit.

Originally posted by Gabinr1
Let's take hand 1. You are on the turn. What I know about the villain is what you know, that he plays 17/15 in around 40 hands, anonymous table - this doesn't tell us much about him, only that he is probably not a fish. (I had sessions where after 100 hands I had 9/5, just because I was card dead so the 17/15 can't be of much reliance). Postflop until now he doesn't have crazy aggressive stats.

Imagine yourself playing the hand. I guess preflop and flop would go the same.
How do you play from the turn? What exact betsizing are you using, or line (with what conditions on villains betsizing if he bets), and with what plan?

Villain is 17/15 over a 40 hand sample -> He seems nitty -> nits don't ever take this line as a bluff = easy fold

40 hands could be inaccurate, but the likelihood of villain being a nit here is around 65-70% as opposed to him being a LAG but just having a short-term bad run of cards in the past 40 hands.

For hand 1 I'm just betting larger on the Turn, I would do so with my entire range here on a double flush board (maybe 65-70% pot). and I'm definitely folding to the raise.

Originally posted by mbml

Originally posted by Gabinr1
I imagined I played against myself.

here is the big mistake. You should make the best play against the average opponent if you are readless. Don't over-think things and then assume people are thinking the same way you do. People don't bluff raise the Turn too often at NL50/100. It's not unconceivable that there are some players who now know how to do that (as opposed to 2-3 years ago where this was pretty much unheard of). However those guys are usuallly the best LAGs at the limit.

I know I shouldn't project my way playing on other players. I just wanted to see if villain will think like me so I can get a better idea about the situation.

Originally posted by mbml

Originally posted by Gabinr1
Let's take hand 1. You are on the turn. What I know about the villain is what you know, that he plays 17/15 in around 40 hands, anonymous table - this doesn't tell us much about him, only that he is probably not a fish. (I had sessions where after 100 hands I had 9/5, just because I was card dead so the 17/15 can't be of much reliance). Postflop until now he doesn't have crazy aggressive stats.

Imagine yourself playing the hand. I guess preflop and flop would go the same.
How do you play from the turn? What exact betsizing are you using, or line (with what conditions on villains betsizing if he bets), and with what plan?

Villain is 17/15 over a 40 hand sample -> He seems nitty -> nits don't ever take this line as a bluff = easy fold

40 hands could be inaccurate, but the likelihood of villain being a nit here is around 65-70% as opposed to him being a LAG but just having a short-term bad run of cards in the past 40 hands.

For hand 1 I'm just betting larger on the Turn, I would do so with my entire range here on a double flush board (maybe 65-70% pot). and I'm definitely folding to the raise.

How much would you make the turn bet? Or would you go for check/call? What is your plan?

EDIT: I didn't see the last line. You said 65-70%. But why would you bet so much?

If villain is polarized on the turn and he is probably not bluffing enough that I we have a profitable bluffcatch, then 50% cbet and give up should be enough.

Well I'm betting larger here with my semi bluffs, and I'm betting with a wider value range as well. And 2nd pair is often not folding (or at least should not be folding) when it still beats so many semi-bluffs on the Turn. Would you bet small with your monsters? I really doubt it. Betting half pot only on that draw heavy turn only tells your opponent that you are not nutted here.

Originally posted by mbml
Well I'm betting larger here with my semi bluffs, and I'm betting with a wider value range as well. And 2nd pair is often not folding (or at least should not be folding) when it still beats so many semi-bluffs on the Turn. Would you bet small with your monsters? I really doubt it. Betting half pot only on that draw heavy turn only tells your opponent that you are not nutted here.

I was thinking like this.

- Always bet 1/2p here. And on the river check/call with bluffcatchers (medium hands) on blanks - check/fold when flushcard hits.
- With monsters the turn and river the same, just that I also check/call when the flushcard hits. Maybe check/raise on blanks.
- Missed semi-bluffs on the river, some check/fold, some check/raise. When I hit I play check/raise.

Villains range on the river should be missed draws, hit draws, or maginal hands (Unless he just calls with a relative nuts on the turn). So betting 3 streets for value I don't think it would be the best choice.

What do you think about this?

Also, how do you play (line, betsizing, plan... everything you take in account):
1. 99
2. JdQd, 7d8d
3. KK
4. AdJd / (would you play any differently on the flop or on the turn AhJh?)

Originally posted by Gabinr1

- Always bet 1/2p here. And on the river check/call with bluffcatchers (medium hands) on blanks - check/fold when flushcard hits.
- With monsters the turn and river the same, just that I also check/call when the flushcard hits. Maybe check/raise on blanks.
- Missed semi-bluffs on the river, some check/fold, some check/raise. When I hit I play check/raise.

Villains range on the river should be missed draws, hit draws, or maginal hands (Unless he just calls with a relative nuts on the turn). So betting 3 streets for value I don't think it would be the best choice.

What do you think about this?

1) I disagree with betting half pot here. Our betting range on the Turn is going to be stronger than in other spots and as such, going by the mantra of bigger bets with stronger ranges, it makes more sense to bet larger here. We are going to have monsters and draws here, and some thin value hands. We are not having any pure air barrels, simply because we are already representing so many semi-bluff hands.

2) I think it's fine to check/raise some monsters especially when a ton of draws miss. But I prefer doing it if villain is capable of value betting thinly. Not vs some nit who would check back AT here in this spot. The main value of a check/raise is not to induce bluffs (we can do that with bluff catcheres), but to get a weaker value hand to value bet thinly, and then pay us off with his entire stack when he disbelieves our river checkraise.

Originally posted by Gabinr1
Also, how do you play (line, betsizing, plan... everything you take in account):
1. 99
2. JdQd, 7d8d
3. KK
4. AdJd / (would you play any differently on the flop or on the turn AhJh?)

Since this is NL100 and I want to be balanced, I would bet the same size with my entire range. I would bet 8$ on the Flop (large bet size cos my range for cbetting on this bad board is going to be pretty strong).

On the Turn I would usually bet between 80-100% of the pot, depending on the stack to pot ratio. If I did min-raise the BU here and there's a ton of money left behind, I would just pot it. If pot is larger like here where we raise 3bb pre, then 80% pot makes more sense.

With my entire value/bluff range I would bet 80%-100% pot on the River

1. Bet Turn and mostly betting River. Check/raising some % of the time someone with a wide floating range and is capable of value betting thinly

2. Bet Turn with the intention of bluffing hearts, usually giving up on blank rivers. You can bluff some small % of the time though, but note that you shouldn't be bluffing here too often cos it's just so easy for your opponent to talk himself into calling here. You can consider an overbet here if villain is nitty cos I don't think a regular pot size bet works when all draws missed but this would be an exploitive play.

3. KK is the same as 99 here IMO, he would raise all monsters on the Turn so we pretty much have the best hand here almost always.

4. I may check/call the Flop some % of the time, we have showdown value and I think if our opponents bet twice and give up river we will dominate their smaller draws and win. But I'm usually betting Flop and Turn here and checking the River. Don't like bluffing nut flush draws, would prefer checking and some small % of the time villain may consider not bluffing with his worse draws.