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100NL 250 bb deep bluffing

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gonepoker
Joined: 15.05.2009

Hey,
co is unknown, after 80 hands seems like straightforward, not out of line reg. Played 20/15 style.
BU -aggro fish
I already noticed I made too small cbet OTF.
What do you think about rest of the hand? What range would you bluff with?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

CO: $256.01 (256 bb)
BTN: $75.74 (75.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $251.55 (251.6 bb)
BB: $210.18 (210.2 bb)
UTG: $82.66 (82.7 bb)
MP: $121.22 (121.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, Hero raises to $12, BB folds, CO calls $9, BTN calls $9

Flop: ($37) J 6 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $18, CO calls $18, BTN folds

Turn: ($73) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $46, CO calls $46

River: ($165) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $175.55 and is all-in, CO calls $175.55


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5 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

I think it's ok to bluff shove the River with some busted flush draws especially if villain is on the weaker side with a lower WTSD in the low 20s.

We need to balance our overpairs anyway with some air. And you already mentioned it, bet slightly larger on Flop so that we will only have 3/4 pot bet left on the River.

Thanks.


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dooleslovs
Joined: 17.02.2011

Hi. If we need to balance overpars here we are expecting him to call with Jx. So what do we expect to fold here otr? Do we have >50 FE? I understand that this is one of the best bluff combo in our range. And we have more than 20 value combos in our range. But do we need to be balanced in every spot? River card seems very bad for blufing.


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

showdown pls!


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Originally posted by dooleslovs
Hi. If we need to balance overpars here we are expecting him to call with Jx. So what do we expect to fold here otr? Do we have >50 FE? I understand that this is one of the best bluff combo in our range. And we have more than 20 value combos in our range. But do we need to be balanced in every spot? River card seems very bad for blufing.

I agree that river card isn't too great but bluffing here is probably ok when the middle card pairs. If River was a Jack then bluffing would be extremely terrible. If board was JT69T, I would also be more inclined to c/f cos people play way more TX combos than 7X combos.


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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

i dont find it to be a good bluff, because co is very possible to have ovepairs in his range because he wants to keep the fish in the pot, also it's possible that villain is slowplaying sets. i am not sure you could valuebet a hand like QQ OTR wiht that sizing because in theory co cant call with AJ there. I think that with you value range(KK+,JJ) you should bet half pot on the river to get calls from weaker hands, and you also could bluff with this sizing. betting pot or slitghly overbet seems to me a little bit spewy, and it doesnt acomplish much imo.

@mbml what hands do you think would call you when you shove a hand like QQ? what it's your pot-size-bet-range on the river?


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