double gutter check raise on flop and bluff river A

Hi.

I think the Flop and Turn CR is fine. On the River we are mostly repping sets and KQ. What hands are we trying to fold out?

Possible Folding Hands
KJ (12 combos)
QJ (12 combos)
KK/QQ (12 combos)
Non-nut flush non-combo draws - KdJd, Kd6d, QdJd, 5d6d (4 combos)
40 combos

Possible Calling Hands
AdXd with no pair or straight draw (5 combos)
KQ (12 combos)
JT (9 combos)
89 (16 combos)
Sets (12 combos)
AJ (9 combos)
63 combos

The problem with this texture is that many of his flush draws will be combo draws - He either has straight+flush draw, or pair+flush draw. All those hands would often push the Flop.

What does this mean for us? He will now have fewer busted draws here which would fold on the River.

You are potting the River, which means you need 50% fold equity. You only fold 40 out of 103 combos which is ~ 39% so this is insufficient.

I think bluffing at diamonds may be better. Not because we should always bluff at diamonds, but because of the excessive coordination of this particular flop which should make most of his flush draws combo draws, which means that he would often he 3betting all those combo draws on the Flop.

thinking back on this situation and after seeing his hand which was TT for a set that did not raise a wet board, it inclines me to think that the best option on this board was to c/c since i have 0 fold equity. we can see that hes pretty tight on the button and does not CB much which means he has a strong hand hes not giving up to a check/raise when he CB.

so i was thinking ill check/call and if i hit check/overbetjam for max value since hes almost always calling.

what do you think

cgf

I'll probably c/c the better straight draws like KQ, I don't like this double gutter too much since your out to the 9 is not so good. And I don't rly mind folding such a weak hand vs a flop 3bet so I think c/r is fine.