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100NL TPTK 4 to a str8 board

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dozeer
Joined: 25.07.2011

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $275.50 (275.5 bb)
BTN: $103.35 (103.4 bb)
SB: $156.65 (156.7 bb)
BB: $40 (40 bb)
UTG: $41 (41 bb)
Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($7) 8 T 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

Turn: ($21) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.50, SB calls $16.50

River: ($54) 6 (2 players)
SB checks

Hi,

Opp is 31/8 pasive fishy player.

He seems like the player type who is likely to slowplay some 2pair+ hands postflop, so I think his range on the river is still fairly uncapped when he checks to me..

Saw me dbl barrel draw and gu on the river few minutes ago, so he might be inclined to call bit lighter.

Can we value bet river, if yes what size ?

cheers


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi

1. You need him to call all combos of TX (KT QT JT) which probably won't happen
2. You lose to all sorts of straights (T9 89 79 69 J9 Q9)
3. You lose to so many two pairs (T8 78 76 86)

I think that's pretty clear that you don't have a value bet here and this is not close at all, you are probably a 20-30% underdog vs a River calling range so you are just going to be putting in more money as the underdog.

Thanks.


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