poker tracker 4 all in equity graph

Originally posted by shero1910
Hi guys

I am trying to get my head around the Poker Tracker all in equity graph and what it says about my play.

I am fluctuating between 4 and 5 bb wins per 100 so my money won graph is slowly creeping in the right direction but my all in equity graph is generally below zero and sometimes significantly so.

I have tried to read their explanation for it but cannot grasp what they are trying to say.

Can anyone explain this to a dummy? Thanks.

Some simple notes -

1) Allin Equity (and all-in EV in other apps) is not a real measurement of luck. It does not tell you if you are running hot or cold, it only tells you if you are running above or below expectation. Its a measurement of expectation of one hand vs another hand(s) when you go all in. Measurement only occurs when all hands that have equity in the pot are known and there is one street to come, so for example shoves on the river are not included and also hands where there was a three way pot with to all-in moments but the third player folded are disqualified.

2) We don't use the term All-in EV because its not really the definition of Expected Value. Expected Value incorporates range of your opponents and is a measurement of your actions (or reactions) against your opponent's range before the actual hands are known, a tracking tool cannot determine an opponents range, hence we use the actual cards help by the opponent. I guess you can say that this is a partially results oriented way of gaining data, that is why many players downplay the effectiveness of All-In Equity Adjusted Winnings or (All-In EV in other apps)

3) We calculate All-in Equity Adjusted winnings by:
a. Waiting until there is no further betting that can take place before calculating the equity, and disqualifying any hands where equity cannot be accurately calculated (such as all-ins on the river or three way pots where an opponent's hand is unknown at showdown).
b. The expected winnings are calculated by multiplying the equity that each player has in the hand at the point where there is no further betting possible due to the all-in, and then multiply that time the size of the total pot

Example - Two players go all-in Preflop, the blinds fold in a .50/1 NL game. They both contributed $100 to the pot for a total pot of $201.50. Subtract the rake and the pot total is $199.00. Lets assume their hands were AKo and 99, this means the Equity Adjusted Winnings for AKo would be 199 * .4453 = $88.61 and therefore the equity adjusted winnings for 99 would be $109.61. This tells us that every time 99 goes all in, there is a $9.61 profit expectation.

Most players use the graph to track their equity adjusted winnings, but we feel that doesn't tell the whole story - we advise using the Equity Adjusted Winnings reports instead to look at your equity adjusted results PER HAND rather than combined in the graph.

For more information listen to this excellent podcast with Jarred Tendler - http://jaredtendlerpoker.com/radio-podcasts/the-mental-game-radio-show/the-mental-game-of-pokertracker/

Are there any plans to introduce street-by-street EV at some point? It is usually much more accurate in terms of measuring "luck".

Originally posted by Demetroid
Are there any plans to introduce street-by-street EV at some point? It is usually much more accurate in terms of measuring "luck".

A tracker cannot calculate EV, only a human being can do that because the opponent's range is needed, not his or her actual hole cards. Additionally street by street equity already exists, but street by street EV is not logical - all that matters is the point where the all-in occurs. It was never designed to be a measure of luck, its only a measurement of expectation.