Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,410)
BB ($5,640)
BTN ($3,950)
Dealt to Hero 9♥ 8♦
fold, Hero raises to $440, BB calls $240
FLOP ($880) J♦ 6♥ 7♦
Hero checks, BB bets $1,000, Hero raises to $1,970 (AI), BB calls $970
BB is an unknown, his 3 handed stats are rather tightish, although a tiny sample 18/0/4/11. If i even attempted this steal i assume that his ingame stats from earlier phases must have been tightish as well.
It is a Nash push (bottom) but i dont want to push it against an unknown, even one that seems tightish, when im still very far from being desperate even thogh im the shorty.
flop - thats where i got lost
As u can guess i went for a check/shove assuming that an unknown is gonna bet flop ip a lot after i miss my cbet and most of his range at that point is not gonna be able to call my shove. would you say that this approach makes sense or is it better to cbet/fold as a default?
advantages of ch/shoving imo:
- we generate more FE this way (especially against weak made hands 6x, 7x)
- he can never win by bluffing, meaning that he will win only when he has a real hand (or a better draw that will hit) as opposed to him raising our cbet (unless he decides to bet/call flop with KQ or sth but thats rather unlikely imo)
- we win more chips on avarage (assuming he folds his air to our cbet but bets it when checked to)
disadvantages:
- he needs to bet flop often and facing an unknown we can never be sure of that (having said that i dont think its a disaster when he checks back flop since we will fire a delayed cbet nearly 100% of the time and it may actually work vs an unknown, if not we still have outs + a very easy bet/fold on the turn unimproved since imo him raising turn is much stronger than betting flop)
as played - easy change of my initial plan when he overbets for more than 1/2 of my stack, right? even if it doesnt seem necessarily strong (draw?) ive lost all my FE so shoving 9 high is just burning money so its a fold.