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22$; 60/40 6max; bb40; KK river decision on Q92 A Q

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wiarygodny
Joined: 16.07.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,720)
BB ($2,260)
UTG ($1,590)
CO ($1,940)
Hero ($4,490)

Dealt to Hero K♣ K♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to $100, SB calls $80, BB calls $60

FLOP ($300) 9♠ Q♥ 2♣

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $165, SB folds, BB calls $165

TURN ($630) 9♠ Q♥ 2♣ A♦

BB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($630) 9♠ Q♥ 2♣ A♦ Q♣

BB bets $400, Hero folds

BB wins $630

BB unknown, first day ive played with him, seemed reggy 23/16/1.9/573

standard fold on the river? when i try to put him on a range it goes like this:

flop:
Qx, JT
Ax (A9, A2s, or maybe simply A high), 9x - less likely

turn:
no changes, i believe he's gonna check with all those hands

river:
i dont think he's betting 9x, so imo its either Qx, some Ax combo or a bluff with busted JT. But i really think that the likelihood of him bluffing JT there with this sizing against another player who seems reggy (me) on this board is not very big, which leaves us with pure value bets, do you agree?


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7 replies

this river size is a big tell imo. I agree with your range and the only hand you beat is JT. I would fold river wp


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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

How about betting turn again for thin value and free showdown?


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i don't like betting turn. the ace is a scare card for his Qx and 9x so I think he just folds a lot of those on the turn (maybe he calls sometimes). We can still get value on the river if he checks river out of those hands. Also our hand looks weak when we just cbet then check turn (looks like we were just bluffing).


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Would you have called riv for this sizing if there was a FD on the flop?


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Originally posted by kurrkabin
Would you have called riv for this sizing if there was a FD on the flop?

probably, because then there are way more draws he could have other than JT. (assuming the flush missed).


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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

Originally posted by lessthanthreee

Originally posted by kurrkabin
Would you have called riv for this sizing if there was a FD on the flop?

probably, because then there are way more draws he could have other than JT. (assuming the flush missed).

I was going to ask if you would consider betting the turn, if there was a flush draw (assuming he has more draws to call with, and game theory-wise we have more semibluffing hands, therefore should have more merged value range)?


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forget GTO vs unknowns.

but yes, betting turn on a flush board would make more sense because there are more draws to get thin value from.


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