33 28.07.13

Hi.

You are in the BB here. I don't think calling is ever an option vs a 26BB stack unless he's really passive and will often let you check down and get to the showdown. So your other options here are to shove or to fold.

Do you know how to use Pokerstrategy Equilab? This could be a decent spot to try out some algebraic equations and solve them. I'll show you some examples below. Anyway...

As played, I think your play is fine. With 2 flush draws out there with so little money left behind in comparison to the pot, a c/c c/r line makes the most sense.

Assuming the average MP player opens 16% of hands, let's see...

Let's say villain calls your push with a range of 88+/AQ+ (5.6%). Your equity with 33 is 33% vs such a range. You would be risking 25BB more to win a pot of 52.5BB. You would get back 33% X 52.5BB on average (17.325BB). If you get called, you lose 25-17=8 on average. When he folds, you win 3 (MP's open) +1.5 (blinds) = 4.5

Expectation = (5.6/16)(-8) + (10.4/16)(4.5) = -2.8 + 2.925 = +0.125BB

If my assumptions are right, this would be a +EV play. But if they are wrong and villain calls the push wider, then this would be a -EV play.