Sh50 - Tp + Oesd

Hi C,

After 400 hands he seems quite aggressive postflop. He raised some cbets, he doesn't fold too much to cbet plus his AFq is high on all streets.

Your concern for postflop is definitely valid but given your equity and opponent being far from tight and honest I think 3betting and calling it off is the way to go. I would 3bet big enough to be pot commited but not shove so something like 3betting to 23 I think should be fine.

Complete worst scenario where you 3bet and he only shoves sets is:

Board: 7♣5♥4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    29.19%  27.98%   1.21% { 7s6s }
UTG+1  70.81%  69.60%   1.21% { 77, 55-44 }

A more likely scenario:

Board: 7♣5♥4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    41.29%  40.07%   1.21% { 7s6s }
UTG+1  58.71%  57.50%   1.21% { JJ-TT, 77, 55-44 }

And finally, one of the best cases for you:

Board: 7♣5♥4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    46.60%  41.66%   4.93% { 7s6s }
UTG+1  53.40%  48.47%   4.93% { JJ-44, 75s+, 65s, 54s }

As you can see, getting it in, when you have folding equity with your 3bet, will be +EV in most cases.