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AQs 280813: Moster draw shove

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Tavore
Joined: 17.04.2013

So my equity calculator tells me I'm getting less than even money with a shove here which I thought wasn't the case when you have 13 or more outs on the flop can anyone explain why?

iPoker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 95.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 48)
SB: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 37.91, PFR: 21.98, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 183)
Hero (BB): 105.5 BB
UTG: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 133 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
MP: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
MP+1: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 2.08, PFR: 2.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
CO: 108 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ A♣

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 3 players) J♦ J♣ K♣
Hero bets 8.5 BB, MP+1 raises to 26 BB, fold, Hero raises to 101.5 BB and is all-in, MP+1 calls 68.5 BB

Turn: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) T♦

Hero shows Q♣ A♣ (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 13%, Flop 43%, Turn 27%)
MP+1 shows A♠ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (Pre 87%, Flop 57%, Turn 73%)
Hero wins 188.5 BB


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Hi,

firstly we should be folding AQs here against MP1 super tight open.

we do not really have 13 outs, the A is not good for us, so we only have 9 flush outs + 3 non flush T outs which is 12 outs. on top of that any A that comes would put our opponent ahead. any J gives him a full house too.

and also against MP range on a JJK board he could already have a strong hand like Jx or KK JK so we should take a more passive line with this hand and just check call.

Thanks
Cutegoldfish


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