Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
Hero ($5.95)
BB ($5.72)
UTG ($12.37)
UTG+1 ($5)
UTG+2 ($2.71)
MP1 ($5.62)
MP2 ($5.24)
CO ($8.61)
BTN ($5.93)
Dealt to Hero A♣ Q♠
UTG raises to $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, UTG calls $0.30
FLOP ($0.85) 2♥ J♣ A♦
Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40
TURN ($1.65) 2♥ J♣ A♦ 4♥
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
RIVER ($4.65) 2♥ J♣ A♦ 4♥ 7♦
Hero checks, UTG checks
Hero shows A♣ Q♠
(Pre 69%, Flop 82.5%, Turn 72.7%)
UTG shows 8♥ A♥
(Pre 31%, Flop 17.5%, Turn 27.3%)
Hero wins $4.46
Villain is 31/13 and passive over 71 hands. He's opened 5/15 from EP already, so overall I think it's extremely likely that he has tons of worse Ax in his range and he's also likely to call. I know I'm OOP and he's UTG but given what I've observed I think there's value to be had. I'm obviously folding to a 4 bet.
In this situation vs a reg I normally check the turn here as I'm not often getting 3 streets of value from worse, but vs this guy I'm not sure if I should bet the turn and check/fold or check call the river.
