Calling range vs Reg

Originally posted by Evante
Then I use KJs against that range which gives a 45% Equity.

This means I should not be calling with this hand regardless of position as I would be losing 10% EV in a long run?

I may be wrong about all of this, but I don't think the absolute equity any given hand has against his range is as important as the playability, i.e. the realisable equity you have (or we could even just call it the overall EV of your call). The only problem then is that this is obv pretty hard to determine. So we can get a rough idea of this by figuring out what we will do postflop based on the information we have about villain's postflop game. If villain opens this wide and check/folds every time he misses and then bets whenever he hits then you might be able to call IP (assuming you won't get squeezed!) with almost ATC and print money when he checks to you.

So imo the most important thing here is finding out how villain plays his range postflop (and preflop) and then come up with a gameplan on how to play against that. Just looking at equity alone to determine which hands to paly is such an incomplete approach because it just neglects the bigger picture of future streets and decisions.

I guess in a vacuum you probably have 40% on your preflop call (if he opens 3x) and so if you have 45% with KJs then it's a call if you just look at the equity alone.

Originally posted by Evante
So I have this REG who opens around 18% UTG
This is the range i give after I go through his range

22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo+, KQo

Then I use KJs against that range which gives a 45% Equity.

This means I should not be calling with this hand regardless of position as I would be losing 10% EV in a long run?

Like the Dr says, there is more to it than mere equity.

Disclaimer: I am not a coach! (nor a mathematician)

If that is his range -- and it looks reasonable to me, then calling does look a tad foolish.

But:
♦  If he is opening that wide UTG at 6-max, you should have some fold equity.  How often does he fold to 3Bet from that position?

Look at it like this:
As soon as he open-raises, there is 4.5 BB in the pot, assuming he opens 3x from UTG.

Let's say you 3Bet to 8BB

If he folds, you win 4.5 BB outright.
Let's pretend that if he DOESN'T fold, then you lose always.

So W * 4.5 = L * 8
and W + L = 1
W is the fraction of the time he folds, and you win.
In this case if he folds 64% of the time you win .64 * 4.5 = 2.88 BB
and you lose 0.36 * 8 = 2.88

And that is assuming that you have 0 equity for the times he doesn't fold.
Clearly, if he folds to a 3Bet more than 65% of the time, you can 3Bet any two. Well at least until he catches on.

♦  How good is this UTG post flop (and how good are you)?
Can you call him and use your superior post-flop skills to take the pot down with a well-executed bluff? Even a CBet will do on the right board.
♦  What is the effective stack size -- if he is a shorty is he even worth going after?
♦  Who is left to act? Is there a loose goose who is going to come along for the ride? Is there an aggro reg that is going to squeeze?

Good question !
Thanks for making me think...

--VS

yeah kinda left out some important info

This is full ring and open raises every position at 4bb.

I guess in a vacuum you probably have 40% on your preflop call (if he opens 3x) and so if you have 45% with KJs then it's a call if you just look at the equity alone.

actually i have been thinking about this after i read an ps.com article on how to play JJ/TT

the article says

So was alittle confuse, maybe because this time the Villain 3bet to 10.5bb rather than our case which is just calling 4bb

Thou still I think we can use that example for this case because this villain has a 3bet value of 10% BUT vs me 16% which lead back to this question is calling KJ +EV vs him?

Originally posted by Evante
Thou still I think we can use that example for this case because this villain has a 3bet value of 10% BUT vs me 16% which lead back to this question is calling KJ +EV vs him?

I doubt comparing a 3bet situation to a single raise is going to get us anywhere because that has its own list of complex things like 'how does villain construct his 3betting range?'

I don't think anybody can really tell you if calling KJs is +EV - this is probably something you'll have to figure out yourself. There is just no easy way of calculating the EV here. Even just to assume that we have 0% equity if we 3bet and he calls is bad for obvious reasons, just like assuming our reaction will end the hand.. The best thing to do is simply to ask yourself how you will win the hand. If you call here, how will you win? Normally you'd quite like to have a combination of pot equity and fold equity, otherwise you bleed money by calling just to hit. So here you have like 45% equity vs his range - that's nice, but do you have ANY situations postflop where you can capitalise on FE? Can you float him? Is his cbetting range weak enough that you can bluffraise a lot? Does he fire 2 and give up on the river? Does he check to check/fold or check/call or check/raise? Do you have any other information that points to a weakness in his game? I think these are the questions you really need to ask.

As Vorpal pointed out, how often he folds to 3bets is also a good question to ask because you do have equity if called, although this is a last resort from the FE you generate preflop. You thus have 2 shots at winning the pot.

I will contradict myself now by giving an example as if we have 0% equity when called... He opens 18% UTG and maybe folds down to JJ+ and AQ+, calling with JJ, QQ, AQ and AK and 4betting with KK+ (I think that's a safe assumption but if it's wrong then we can adjust the numbers). That means he opens with 238 combos (using your range) and *continues* vs a 3bet with 56 of those.

FE = 1-(56/238) = 0.7647, so he's folding 76.47% to 3bets here.

He opens 4bb and so the pot facing you is 5.5bb with the blinds. You 3bet him to 3x his open for a chance of winning 5.5bb so you invest 12 to win 5.5. In order to breakeven (ignoring equity when called!) this has to be successful 12/(5.5+12) = 0.6857 or 69% of the time. So to get the EV of this spot we just do what VorpalF2F did and multiply the probability of him folding by the pot that you win when he folds. We don't really need to look much before realising we can 3bet in this spot with a wide range and print money from him due to our FE alone. Now all you need to do is figure out if EV(3bet) > EV(call and play postflop).

I think I'm beginning to understand why I'm a losing player.

First off, I would NEVER BEFORE have 3Bet any UTG open w/ KJs

But after reading this, I can see the potential vs the right player.

If he really opens 18% UTG then his range is something like:

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

That's 18% according to Equilab.
That seems extremely wide to me.

Let us assume that we can profitably 3Bet with 45% equity or greater, whether we win by him folding, or by us cashing our equity postflop w/o showdown, or by actually winning the pot at showdown (suckouts ftw ! )

The range (from equilab) that has 45% or more equity vs the above range is:

55+
A8s+, KJs+
ATo+, KQo

If I actually dug up the guts to actually 3Bet a UTG raise w/ ATo, it would be a 3Bet/Fold

But as the Dr points out, so much depends on other aspects of villain's game.
I note that KJs (the original hand under discussion) is at the very bottom of this range.

What stakes are we talking here?
Would you 5Bet Bluff ever?

Oh -- and just out of curiosity, how many hands on this reg?

Cheers,
--VS

Sir it is Fullring NL50

and yes i am experimenting 5bet bluff BUT in this limit AND fullring, players dont really 4bet bluff too often thus i have to pick my spots properly.