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3/6 - 88 - Turn Decision

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madorjan
Joined: 13.11.2009

Poker Stars $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2317131
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.333 SB) Hero is UTG with 8 :spade: 8 :diamond:
Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold

Flop: (5 SB) A :heart: K :club: K :spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Turn: (3.5 BB) T :spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

Hey guys,

as per the request of Boomer, I'd like your opinions on this hand. What do you do on the turn, and what's your plan for different rivers?

Thanks in advance,
Madi


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6 replies
floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Think I would b/f turn and check behind river perhaps :f_grin: was thinking that if a Q or J hits the river you might bet, cause youre pretty much at the bottom of your range at this point, but he might fold T, say T9s T8s, 99 aswell. Might fold JT or QT to...


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firsttsunami
Joined: 23.01.2006

i would not bet again. bet turn and check river i don't like pretty much since the T is a pretty awful turn. all his gutshots have improved now and worse pocket pairs will fold to another bet so its an easy check turn for me or i decide to bet the turn and bet the river against JT and QT.

King is paired and the chance decreased that you got trips but you raised from utg and by betting through its tough for him to call down with JT or QT but he'll at least call these hands again on the turn with a pair and a gutshot. basically i would check back and fold to a river bet, even though its an exploitable play but i don'T see him check/calling a small pp and betting on the river. will just happen rarely.


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MAR89
Joined: 08.11.2009

Hello !

I know I don't post here often but I would like to give a try.

Given the fact that SB has coldcall, I'll take him has a fish (loose passive) and if I go by a balanced strategy this is complete bordederline if I give that range to maddy (let's see w/ and w/o 88 :

Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: A :heart: K :club: K :spade: T :spade:

Entire range: 161 

[b]  Grouped[/b]:  125 combos  77.6% 
[b]Ungrouped[/b]:   36 combos  22.4% 

  [b]Group 1[/b]:   99 combos  79.2% (61.5% total) 
  [b]Group 2[/b]:   26 combos  20.8% (16.1% total) 

[b]Group 1[/b]: Two pair (aces and kings) or better

KK+, TT, A5s+, ATo+, KTs+, KTo+, QJs, QJo

[b]Group 2[/b]: Manual selection

77-55, J9s, 98s

And now w/ :

Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: A :heart: K :club: K :spade: T :spade:

Entire range: 161 

[b]  Grouped[/b]:  131 combos  81.4% 
[b]Ungrouped[/b]:   30 combos  18.6% 

  [b]Group 1[/b]:   99 combos  75.6% (61.5% total) 
  [b]Group 2[/b]:   32 combos  24.4% (19.9% total) 

[b]Group 1[/b]: Two pair (aces and kings) or better

KK+, TT, A5s+, ATo+, KTs+, KTo+, QJs, QJo

[b]Group 2[/b]: Manual selection

88-55, J9s, 98s

There is a 3.6% difference between each. 24,4% seems overbluffy since we need to win the pot 22% of the time (1 BB for 4.5). But w/o 88, we slightly underbluff - 20.8%...

But here we're against a calling station like, so I don't mind x/b turn and fold UI river. :)

Don't be hard on me


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Boomer2k10
Joined: 22.09.2010

Nice post MAR, I like it a lot :)

Top range looks good to me overall and it's good to see you looking at the other possibilities too


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madorjan
Joined: 13.11.2009

Originally posted by Boomer2k10
Nice post MAR, I like it a lot :)

Agreed, tho I think you miscalculated the alpha: it should be 2/7.5 (since he has to risk 2 into a pot of 5.5 to bluffcatch, getting 5.5:2), which is ~26.7%, so 88 is definitely in there.


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MAR89
Joined: 08.11.2009

Thanks guys ! I really appreciate :f_grin:.

Madi : I have put 1 in 4.5 for the direct bet (if SB folds turn if we bet). But yeah, if we were to barrel turn and river it's 5.5:2 like you said (I think?)

But against a standard reg I would barrel this off unless he's a SD-monkey.

:)


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