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50 euro hyper vs a fish

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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Hero (SB): 510 (25.5 bb)
BB: 490 (24.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 9
Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80) Q 9 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 40, BB calls 40

Turn: (160) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 80, BB calls 80

River: (320) Q (2 players)
BB bets 330 and is all-in, Hero ?

Villain is a fish, PFR BTN-64%, l 15%, flat 50% from the SB, 3bets 8%, low cbet-25%, high check/call on cbets-60%, 0.6-agg.f-52 hands. However, his aggro factor on the river is quite high-10. But sample is small, so this could be misleading.

Imo we have to bet Turn for value given how many draws he can be calling with(he is very stationary). On the riv however, it looks like a bluff from his part, but I am not so sure given how low his agg.f is.


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3 replies
liguolong
Joined: 18.03.2010

I think we should call river. He might have Q, but it is so unlikely consider he x/called flop and turn. He might also have 78, J8, J10 etc, or floating with some K high.


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Axif1
Joined: 19.11.2011

Seems like ez call otr :)

Because, as Liguolong said, he has a bunch of missed draws and therefore his bluffing range >> value range. Also, given stats which u got, it is very likely that he is passive with his draws and overcards (vs flop cbet). Even with such high call frequency, we expect him to raise some portion of his Qx combos.


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Timontana
Joined: 21.03.2008

I prefer check flop


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