NL100 J9o 3bet pot 3barrel bluff

looks good

Originally posted by jmackenzie
looks good

+1 Wouldn't 3bet to more than 10 though.

Hey duder1n0,

I think this hand is totally fine.

3bet preflop unecessary though, can be difficult to realise equity with offsuit 1 gappers. Still will be +EV as exploitative raise vs guy who folds too much.

I don't think I agree with others. This guy has a strong range coming to the flop, and an even stronger range coming to the turn (given he folds SO much). Hero has just tons of bluff combos here depending on his 3-betting range vs. this guy (J9/KQ/QJ/KJ/fds/Q9/97), but how many value combos taking this line (bet/bet/bet)? I see only AA/AK/TT/88/AT/A8? AQ might not even be a shove at river vs. such a nit.

I think vs. this guy we need to give up some of our bluffs on the river, his range is too strong and hero's too weak. He deffo still has some monsters in his range. If we have a read that he folds exploitably here then we should jam more or all bluffs, but since he has 24 WTSD I don't see how we have this read .. we're not even that deep.

Cool So you mention we should probably bluff some hands? Which hands would you bluff instead?

Well obv. it depends on how you want to construct your river range. I suppose one of the best ways would be to bluff the weakest SD value bluffs at the river, and chb the strongest (if we think it's -EV to jam all our bluffs). In that case, we bluff this particular hand. But only when we recognise the fact we're not jamming all our bluffs (that's what I meant).

But I wonder if we can profitably jam all our bluffs here? We need >46% folds to be +EV. I'll base it off the stats we've been given about villain.

Villain pre-flop calling range: QQ-88,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+,KJo+,QJo (150)
Villain flop calling range: QQ-88,ATs,KTs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,AKo,QJo (57)
Villain turn calling range: QQ-TT,88,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AKo (40)

Now, I'm not even sure nit calls T9/JT/QT again on the turn, but lets suppose he does. We need him to fold >46% of this range when we bluff. Even if he calls AK we still fold out enough combos to make bluffing here always profitable, actually (he has like only 19 combos that can call).

So I was wrong when I thought we need to give up some bluffs here on the river, so long as villain calls turn with all Tx/JJ/QQ. If he doesn't, then we need to decide which hands we bluff and which we don't, depending on % of time he calls. I guess we start with J9 and move up.

Well, from a GTO perspective, you should never continue to bluff all your turn bluffs on the river. When I looked at the hand, this looked like a fine hand to put in our triple barrel range. However, the J is actually a pretty bad card as this blocks a lot of villains floats, which means his range is more valueheavy. So J :club:9 would be a lot better.

Despite that, I do think this is a perfect runout to barrel so still think this is a +EV bet on the river.