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Nl50 Aa 30.10

Hand discussions for No Limit

Last Post by mbml 13 years ago

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_Anonymous_

30.10.2013, 19:43 0

villain stats:

Spoiler

Full Tilt - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $50.75
MP: $91.85 (VPIP: 24.53, PFR: 20.28, 3Bet Preflop: 11.58, Hands: 217)
CO: $35.00
BTN: $343.60 (VPIP: 25.17, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 145)
SB: $50.25 (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: $9.35 (VPIP: 15.60, PFR: 9.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.13, Hands: 4,559)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50, CO posts DB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.25) Hero has A♠ A♥

Hero raises to $2.00, fold, fold, BTN calls $2.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($5.25, 2 players) 4♦ Q♣ 8♥
Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4.00

Turn: ($13.25, 2 players) 2♣
Hero bets $10.00, BTN calls $10.00

River: ($33.25, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, BTN bets $213.00, fold

Preflop:

CC Range: 15%

Spoiler

I gave in his calling range 1/2 monster hands. Sometimes he can flat it.

Flop:

Calling Range:

Spoiler

villain's FCB is just 29% so I guess this board can easily float with AT+.

JJ-44, AdAh, AdAs, AhAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQc, AQs, KQs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AcKc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, KdTd, KhTh, KcTc, AQo-AJo, KQo, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, AsKc

Turn:

Calling Range:

Spoiler

villain calls with: OP, TP, 2ndP, sets, FD, 8x??
JJ-88, 44, AdAh, AdAs, AhAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQc, AQs, KQs, QTs+, 98s, 87s, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, AQo, KQo

River:

villain shoving range:

Spoiler

88, 44, KdKh, KdKs, KhKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQc, KQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, KQo

Board: 4dQc8h2cKd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 28.00% 28.00% 0.00% { AhAs }
SB 72.00% 72.00% 0.00% { 88, 44, KdKh, KdKs, KhKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQc, KQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, KQo }

we have 34% pot odds but we have just 28% so easy fold.

do you see any mistakes in my way of thinking?

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1 reply

mbml

Joined: 27.11.2008

Posts: 20,957

02.11.2013, 02:04 0

Preflop: Giving him 50% combos of monsters is overkill. You should discount those even further. At microstakes people rarely slowplay big hands

Flop: Sample size is an issue. Fold to Flop cbet of 29% indicates that he may be willing to float wider than usual but this will vary according to flop texture.

What would he float with here? Maybe gutshot, backdoor draw (like ATs, AJs), AK high, any pair.

Turn: He may/may not call with 2nd pair. Top pair is almost always calling again. He should be raising some 2pairs and sets on the Turn so you can discount some of those.

River: First you should think about whether you can value bet or not. I don't think you can on such a bad card. The worse hand that calls you here on the River is probably QJs or AQ.

Next option is to check/call. If your assumptions are true, the River is a check/fold. Giving him all combos of KK/QQ is wrong as mentioned earlier. You need to discount those (you discounted those preflop, but you didn't discount them on the River)

Overall it boils down to how often he floats backdoor clubs and bluffs River with them. The tighter he is on the flop, the more you want to c/f the River.

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