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set vs calling station on extremely wet board

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riskcore
Joined: 07.07.2011

Prima, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $5.83 (291.5 bb)
MP: $2 (100 bb)
CO: $2.53 (126.5 bb)
BTN: $3.58 (179 bb)
SB: $2.90 (145 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
MP folds, CO calls $0.02, BTN folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.08, SB folds

Flop: ($0.22) T 3 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, CO calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.66) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.66, CO calls $0.66

River: ($1.98) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.98, CO calls $1.55

Results:

Spoiler

$5.08 pot ($0.10 rake)
Final Board: T 3 9 J A
Hero showed A A and won $0.00 (-$2.53 net)
CO showed J 2 and won $4.98 ($2.45 net)

opponent was a calling station 52/9/.03 agg 40% wtsd over 23 hand samples
is the river a clear valuebet??


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2 replies
Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey riskcore,

Flop value bet is good.

Turn we'd generally pick a smaller sizing and play bet/fold, but may be ok vs station. We should still bet/fold though.

There are so many FD's in CO range that river bet is close. Not a super clear value-bet imo. Ideally we want villain to call with stuff like Jx, otherwise it becomes very thin and check/fold is an option. There are hands like AT/AJ/A9 that might pay out though, although we block these. Other 2pair often may raise on turn so if villain folds Jx on the turn this could easily be a train-wreck.


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riskcore
Joined: 07.07.2011

your reply was super helpful , i think the key is does this opponent raise two pair on the turn, if he does, river is a clear check fold, and we block a lot of combos we want value from

thanks!


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