AKo 2$

Hey Acesteph!

In 3bettet pot there is still value against aq, aj, j10, q10… Although those hands have a ton of outs against us! With the 2nd nutflusherdraw + gutshot + tp it sucks to b/f but why should we stack off here. We're clearly beat at the moment, we don't get such good odds + we still have nearly our whole stack at the beginning of the tourney!

Imo I would agree with you, but please post the explanation of the good reg. I would be interested! Probably check flop also has some value in it!

Greets,
Tiltberger

Hi Tiltberger!

First of all unfortunately I am not good reg, just AceSteph overestimate me:) .

It shows also, that I was wrong at this hand, too:

My thinking was the following:
I gave the following range for the two players_
JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,AQo-A9o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
We have 72% EQ here.

Protection:
I think, it is not so dangerous, as it seems, there are not so many cards, what could reduce significantly our EQ:

Value:
We win value from draws and pairs and lose value from 2 pairs.

We win value from 70% (red dots) and lose value from 30% (yellow dots)
There are two villains, so we lose value in case of 1-(0,7*0,7)= 51%.
It is a very rough estimation, but one of the players is more reggy than fishy, that's why it is not so bad estimation I think.
So I thought, that we have just two streets value, and if we check the flop we can win our value from turn-river.

According to other good players opinion I did not calculate 2 factors:
- we can win value against draws only on the flop and on the turn.
- we can not win our value on the turn in case of action killer T,♣, A

I do not completely agree with the first argument, because simple we do not have value as it is calculated before.
The second one is ok, I accept it, so yes, cbetting is better on the flop.

(Although I am just thinking that we could generate bluff with draws in case of flop checking:))

Greets
1-2
(sorry for my English)

Hey!

Good thinking! I like the the explanation and against 1 reg 1 fish if its just 50% for value a bet doesn't make a lot of sense! Thanks for sharing this with me, I'll also post this hand to some friends! Its imo very interesting!

Greets,
Tiltberger

Hi Tiltberger,

I was thinking a lot about this hand and I think I solved it:)

If we cbet, we just calculated two possibilities, if we play against a better or against worst hand.
But there are two other possibilities:
- We play against two better hands, but it is irrelevant, because does not matter if we lose value against one or against two better hands.
- we win value against two worst hand, in this case we win double value! It is very relevant.
If you calculate, it is 118 hands from 268= 44%, so we win double value 0,44*0,44=20%, what is very significant.

So yes, the cbet is good, but not because of the arguments bellow but because of the double value in some cases.

1-2

Interesting thx for sharing this input!
I would love to have time to calculate things like those atm -> but I'm on a trip around the world and don't have that much time

Greets,
Tiltberger