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Hand discussions for No Limit
Last Post by hvard92 13 years ago
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hvard92
hvard92
Joined: 15.02.2012
Posts: 789
15.11.2013, 20:07

Party, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: $2.39 (59.8 bb) Stats: 61/4/0,0/23
MP2: $5.04 (126 bb)
BB: $3.49 (87.3 bb) Stats: 59/11/0,0/27
MP1: $4.04 (101 bb)
Hero (SB): $4.20 (105 bb)
CO: $4 (100 bb)
BTN: $5.13 (128.3 bb)
MP3: $6.47 (161.8 bb) Stats: 89/0/0,0/28

Preflop: Hero is SB with T T
UTG+2 calls $0.04, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.04, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.24, BB calls $0.20, UTG+2 calls $0.20, MP3 calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.96) 2 Q 6 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.69, 3 folds

Results:

Spoiler

$0.96 pot ($0.04 rake)
Final Board: 2 Q 6
UTG+2 mucked and lost (-$0.24 net)
BB mucked and lost (-$0.24 net)
Hero mucked T T and won $0.92 ($0.68 net)
MP3 mucked and lost (-$0.24 net)

Comment:

Posting this to embarrass myself so i probably won't do it anymore-.- About the concept of "has to work x% of the time" this probably does not work 40-43% of the time since it's multiway x)

How can i calculate how much % of the time it has to work in this situation so i can see how bad my fold equity is?


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5 replies
_Anonymous_
_Anonymous_
15.11.2013, 20:12

Hi hvard92

Preflop: looks fine

Postflop: You can't actually consider this a bluff and saying it has to work x time.

But yes multiway it gets ugly. You multiply what you think their fold to cbet is and get a %.

For example, lets say each fold 75% since it's multiway we have 75*75*75 so about 42% total. But of course when all 3 are fish we know that 75% is not realistic.


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hvard92
hvard92
Joined: 15.02.2012
Posts: 789
15.11.2013, 20:53

Postflop: You can't actually consider this a bluff and saying it has to work x time.

How would you play it?

so if i want 5 to fold, i multiply 75*75*75*75*75= 23% fold equity? I know the example is ridiculous.

If i'm gonna cbet bluff against these players:

-1. Folds to cbet 89% of the time
-2. Folds to cbet 50% of the time
-3. Folds to cbet 34% of the time

Do you take the average? If you do, how do do you mix those numbers so you get the average?


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hvard92
hvard92
Joined: 15.02.2012
Posts: 789
18.11.2013, 18:05

?


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_Anonymous_
_Anonymous_
18.11.2013, 19:02

Statistically speaking the formula it's simple.

You multiply the %s so 89*50*34= 15% or so...

In this case I also divided by 10000 because the actual formula is

(89/100) * (50/100) * (34/100) * 100


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hvard92
hvard92
Joined: 15.02.2012
Posts: 789
18.11.2013, 20:14

Ok thx


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