NL10 TT vs squeeze IP

Hi ched2803

PReflop: Once you get squeezed so large and we are just 100 BB deep I would definitely recommend folding right away.

Postflop: As played just fold the flop imo with another player left to act and a board that will make it hard for you to get to showdown.

As a side note, when you leave a reply, don't forget to hit the advise judge to take another look button.

Interesting hand Ched -
hope you dont mind me mucking in as as I was reading the hand I was nodding my head and think I would have played it exactly the same and so have a few questions for Bogdan.

Originally posted by BogdanPS
Hi ched2803

PReflop: Once you get squeezed so large and we are just 100 BB deep I would definitely recommend folding right away.

Postflop: As played just fold the flop imo with another player left to act and a board that will make it hard for you to get to showdown.

As a side note, when you leave a reply, don't forget to hit the advise judge to take another look button.

Is a large squeeze but getting 2:1 with SB possibly coming along -
you suggest easy fold despite potentilly getting good odds to setmine if SB comes along? (I really need to delve deeper into the math regarding this aspect of the game.)

C-bet is so weak (or appears to be) that I struggle to see hands that have hero beat that villain would bet this way leaving his opponents to draw out on him etc.

Turn: Can check with the aim of calling non broadway non flush Rivers or bet to extract value from draws.

River: Surely all villains value range (including strong draws) bet the Turn. I dont think I would find a fold here as the only hand I am worried about is JJ (which IMO Villain would now be able to Vbet quite confidently) and Heroes check on the Turn is partly to induce ill-concieved bluffs on the River.

Could we get a bit more info on your thoughts Pre and Flop please Bogdan?

Thanks,
MD

The math is pretty simple:

We pay $1.3 or 13 BB to see a flop.

7 out of 8 times we don't hit a set we lose at least 13 bb. That means we lose on average 91 bbs.

So you lose almost a stack set mining and that doesn't include the spots where you lose because you have an overpair or like here call light.

Now, when you hit a set you don't always get paid off and especially not a full stack worth.

So postflop you have to make up your mind. Did you call to set mine or not? Calling tells SB you are weak and he is left to act and you can easily get blown out of the pot. On top of it you have no turn you really want to see (except a T). So besides having pure luck you'll lose your extra investment almost every time.

Thanks Bogdan - the following is not because I question your expertise.

Thanks for the math, makes sense though it doesn't account for the times we win the hand without hitting our set.

So postflop you have to make up your mind. Did you call to set mine or not?

Why? We have some SD and I think any non 9 or below are not bad Turns for us. Only really worried about broadways and spades.

Calling tells SB you are weak and he is left to act and you can easily get blown out of the pot.

I guess the difficulty is SB's short stack size.
Does our concern of being squeezed out by the SB outweigh the 5:1 given us by Villains small Cbet?
Hard to calculate I guess.
Should we be considering what sort of range the SB might ship it in with and the Eq we would have vs that range before we make the call?

Again the SB's short stack confuses how to interperate Villains Cbet size. Vs two full stack opponents it looks very weak but given the short stack it might be strong trying to induce the SB to ship it in.

In my mind this still seems a lot more marginal than your original responce suggests. I am perfectly open to the likelyhood that it isnt and that I am just ignorant as to why this is an easy fold but thats what I am hoping to cure

Thanks,
MD