25 SH K7o

Hi PedroRobertooo

Preflop: looks fine

Postflop: you have the same problem on the river as you did you on the turn. You can't really raise repping so little. Plus the villain could bet so small because he knows your range is weak.

Afterall what checks flop there to call turn? A weak made hand or some weak pair+draw type hand.

So I should fold the turn?

Before we answer that question what range do you have him on betting?

Because really that's what it comes down to. What do you put him on.

I see his pre flop range stuff like this:
I put board in because all of his pre range will be in his hand on the turn.

Board: A♠5♦K♠ J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    55.74%  53.43%   2.31% { Kd7s }
MP3    44.26%  41.95%   2.31% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }

It's pretty close, but let's see what kind of hands will bet on the turn:

Board: A♠5♦K♠ J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    19.05%  15.75%   3.30% { Kd7s }
MP3    80.95%  77.65%   3.30% { 77, 55, AQs-A2s, K9s+, K5s, QTs, J5s, QsJs, JsTs, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, Qs7s, Js7s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, Qs5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, Qs4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, AQo-A2o, K7o+, QTo }

I don't think he will bet Jx or weak Kx without FD like this betsize (the range I give him can be even optimistic [QK, K8]), he obviously want to get value from me. If he want to bluff me out he will bet bigger because he knows my range is pretty weak. He can even bet bigger with a low FD

Did you forget to discount hands that 3-bet vs a min open raise from BTN? i see a lot of hands that shouldn't be in his range for more than a few combos.

The other part of this exercise that's missing is you taking the second range as a percentage of the first range (so in other words how much of his range does he actually bet?).

Also, I don't see you listing many pure bluffs there which I think he can have at least afew off.

First range on the turn:46,01%
Second range on the turn: 21,81%

He will bet 47% of his range. Yes you are right he could bluff me out by random hans, but I don'T think that I can call here twice, so because of my weak range, he often bet the river.

How do you see these ranges?

It really depends from player to player and if he turns pairs into bluffs.

A lot of people do not turn pairs into bluffs which means that his bluff range would be narrower.

But at the same time they don't valuebet thin enough so their value range is also smaller.

So for example I can't see him valuebetting a hand like KT or even a weak Ax at times.