109$ J6s in bb vs short CO shove

Hi,

Pot is 645. He shoves 1560. You need to call 1310, getting 1.68:1, which means you need to have 37% equity (if you want to reduce variance then 40% is also fine)

if we assume he is shoving 25% of hands, you have 35% equity
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Js6s 35.17% 178,776,691 8,589,462
25% 64.83% 333,174,263 8,589,462

Even against 35% hands it si not very profitable call:
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Js6s 35.17% 178,776,691 8,589,462
25% 64.83% 333,174,263 8,589,462

I would fold and wait better option. You have nice fold equity, some reshove equity and you don´t have to gamble J6s

My callrange your spot against 25% shove is:
JT+, Q9s, K6s, A2+, 22+

best regards,

Since opponent is unknown, I think giving him the nash range should be a good way to start our evaluations:

42.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q5s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 87s 76s

That leaves us with ~38% equity:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    37.84%  36.67%   1.17% { J6s }
MP3    62.16%  61.00%   1.17% { 22+, K2s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, K5o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }

Since we need ~37% we could potentially call and have a slightly +EV spot.
Problem is, that unknown players tend to push tighter then nash. Furthermore we shouldn't take spots that are EV neutral (and this one is very close to it) in order to avoid variance. Finally, as Kaitz already mentioned, we have a perfect restealing stack and I wouldn't want to risk it for such a close spot.

--> Fold

Regards,
Asaban