NL25 SH Zoom KQs 3 barrel

Hi.

I'll bet 80% Flop and maybe 80-100% Turn. River pot bet is fine (I don't think you need to overbet) as it puts a lot of pressure on his one-pair holdings.

But we need to know that he rarely slowplays 2p and sets here on the Flop and Turn.

But we need to know that he rarely slowplays 2p and sets here on the Flop and Turn.

Cannot we assume that this is true having those stats, unless we have seen real example that he does slowplay 2 pairs and sets on wet boards?

ok, i guess that's a reasonable assumption.

And here since we are mostly targeting one-pair hands, and we would not overbet jam with a straight anyway, I don't see the need to overbet

Hmm Let's reanalyze this hand.

assuming he raises 2p and sets on the Turn, he now could have

Straights
A:c5:c
65s (3)
55 (6)
10

2pairs or sets
44 (3)
64s (2)
79s (2) - I'll just give him one 2-pair here
7

1-pair
78s (3)
89s (3)
88 (6)
A:c4:c
TT (6)
JJ ? (3) - He might squeeze some
22

22 out of 39 combos are going to fold to a regular 80% pot bet anyway IMO so you should just go for that.I guess with the overbet you can also fold out some 2pairs or sets but that's not enough to justify the added amount of risk.

Straights
A5
65s (3)
55 (6)
10

2pairs or sets
44 (3)
64s (2)
79s (2) - I'll just give him one 2-pair here
7

why do you assume he will call turn so light vs UTG 2nd barrel 3way? I mean 2nd pair + GS, PP+ GS. He does not look like calling station. wtsd sample is small, so we cannot look at that now. Or at least not so drastically.

So I would think

Ac5c (I am not sure if that should raise turn or not by default)
6c5c
2

79s (2) - ok lets give him 2 pair

So 22/26 combos will fold. Or will not ? I mean should he really even fold best hands, esp 2 pair, when we can have full of bluffs because its capped range? BUt yea, if we have balanced value and bluff range, no matter what he does - we win.

If we bet 1 pot - we need 2 value bets for 1 bluff.

So is it not correct to think like this - we can shove river and have more bluffs, because he needs to call less? And if we have read that he folds always, we will start exploiting by adding more bluffs.

So by pot bet logic I calculate overbet logic.

He needs to win:
23.86/ (23.86+14.9) = 62% of time

So we need value 62 % and bluff bet 38 % of time, we need less value bets. And usually its easier to find bluffs than value bets.

Edit: actually mistake in calculation. I guess should be:

He needs to win
23.86/ (23.86*2+14.9) = 38 %

By pot sized bets he would need to win 1 / (1+1+1) = 33 %

100 - 33 = 66 % of value

So with overbet - 100-38 = 62 % of value? (Still got the same but maybe thinking more correct )