$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($123.42) 123bb
UTG+1 ($100) 100bb
CO ($228.99) 229bb
BTN ($100.66) 101bb
SB ($115.71) 116bb
Hero (BB) ($100) 100bb
Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB A♠ Q♠
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG+1 calls $7
Flop: 5♥ 4♦ 7♣ ($20.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $11.50, UTG+1 calls $11.50
Turn: 9♥ ($43.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
River: 8♦ ($43.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, xxxx
Opponent reg 29/19, MP 20% open, fold to 3b 27% (mostly defending by calling). Fold to cbet in 3b pot 45/37/43
Bet vs missed cb IP in 3bet pot: 44/65/60
Raise flop 3b pot: 14%/ wwsf 46, wtsd 27, w$sd 49
What options do you consder each street and why?
I was thinking about bet-xx-bet when he decided to xb turn but let's go back.
He's calling range for my 3b probably looks like pp (55+, Axs, suited broadways, 87s+, AJo+, KJo, KQo). ~12.4%
X/c is an option here? to call once and give up, with thoughts that he can have worse Q and Ax, if hit, he's going to vbet, sometimes I get to sd.
With cbet, he is not going to fold anypair, any draw, gs + bfd.
So calculating, I have like ~40% fold equity in minimum I think, expect to get call by all overs with bfd, this might be overassuption cause the positions. In more cricit scenario, he's continiue with 6.56%. (QQ-55,AKs-A8s,KQs-KJs,T9s,98s,87s), might not get raised any flop from any hand.
These all words might looks like overcorrection for this situation but I want to do this in deepth.
On the turn 9h, expect to get fold only by suited-b with no fd, ~20% fold equity.
QQ-55,AKs-A8s,KQs-KJs,T9s,98s,87s
Too less to bet, probably going to x/f.
Few thoughts: mainly his plan looks to: call 3b wide, call flop and bet vs weak check, by playing mostly by x/f I would let him realize his misterious plan.
I 3b from BBvMP so in general, playerspool bottom range here will be AK mostly, probably he thinks about this that way, so i'm strong here.
When he check-back, he's not having a set, strong over pair, but still has one pair type hands like Axs+pair, but i don't belive that he is not betting with draw always.
His river range after check: TT,88,66,AKs-A8s,KJs,T9s,98s,87s.
Expect to get called: TT,88,66,98s,87s
Giving me 33% fold equity, not as much even if my assumptions are close to being correct. Still probably can't x/c river after double check from my side.
What are your thoughts here? What are our options from diffrent point of view?
