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NL20 speed too thin valueshove OTR?

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mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $32.89 (164.5 bb)
UTG: $54.03 (270.2 bb)
MP: $20.50 (102.5 bb)
CO: $29.40 (147 bb) 24/19, fold to 3bet 67, fold to cbet 25, WTSD 25, hands 266.
BTN: $26.23 (131.2 bb)
SB: $31.17 (155.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.80, CO calls $1.40

Flop: ($3.70) 7 K 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80, CO calls $2.80

Turn: ($9.30) J (2 players)
Hero bets $6.80, CO calls $6.80

River: ($22.90) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.49 and is all-in, CO calls $18 and is all-in

Can we shove this river for value? Based on my own equilab calculations we can't, at best case scenario I got us pretty close to 50% but not quite and I think when calculating these spots and thinking what is the best play we should think about the worst case scenario and think if our play is +ev even in worst case scenario. Then we could be pretty sure that our play is good.

Results:

Spoiler

$58.90 pot ($2.94 rake)
Final Board: 7 K 8 J 5
Hero mucked A K and won $0.00 (-$29.40 net)
CO showed 9 6 and won $55.96 ($26.56 net)


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2 replies

Hi mesisification

Preflop:: looks fine

Postflop: What range do you have villain on for playing his hand like this?

I find it hard to believe that he has (m)any better hands by the river given his line on such a wet board.

If anything I can see us betting to induce there since his range is weaker.


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mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

Yeah you're probably right, I had a really tough day yesterday and lost quite a bit, I just want to make sure that I didn't make big mistakes in these big pots. I think that villain would call on the river with 77/88/87s/T9s/KJ, maybe JJ if he doesn't 4bet it. He would also call with any Kx which we beat. I did put this range to equilab and I got something like 45%. What I didn't consider is that villain might raise sets/2pair for on the flop/turn.

But yeah I think I'm just trying desperately look for a reasons why I lost yesterday but maybe there was not much to do.


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